After a gruelling seven-week journey that saw 20 teams, 649 players, 320 tries, and an astounding 2,538 points, the Rugby World Cup is set for its conclusion in Paris tonight. In a repeat of the 1995 World Cup final, New Zealand and South Africa are vying for the title and the honour of world champions and rugby global leaders for the next four years.

Despite frustrations in some quarters about an unfair pool stage draw, it is undeniable that the two most deserving teams have emerged to contest the 2023 final. Both New Zealand and South Africa have shown their quality and strength, overcoming their pool stages despite setbacks against the host nation, France, and the world’s top-ranked team, Ireland, respectively.

While tonight’s game brings together the two leading rugby nations it’s the divergent playing strategies that make this an interesting game for rugby lovers. Both teams carry with them rich traditions, but it’s their differing approaches that will captivate spectators. The winning team’s tactics will undoubtedly be emulated by club and school teams worldwide. Coaches hailing from the victorious nation will soon be seen in the northern hemisphere, professing to have the secret formula for success. Conversely, the strategy of the losers will be scrutinised and perhaps dismissed as ineffective.

New Zealand, true to its legacy, bring a blend of speed and strength, often resulting in brilliantly executed tries. South Africa, on the other hand, have a game built on strength, power and pressure and can suffocate any team’s attack leaving the opposition struggling to counter their robust game plan.

An analysis of the game statistics underscores the distinctive playing styles of the two teams. While it’s challenging to directly compare their performance statistics from the six games they’ve played thus far – given the varied levels of opposition and the distribution of game time among squad members – certain intriguing trends could prove significant in tonight’s face-off.

The New Zealand team has lost a mere two lineouts throughout the tournament, a remarkable improvement in this area since Jason Ryan's addition to the coaching staff from the Crusaders in 2022. Impressively, they have scored 20 of their 48 tries from lineouts. Their meticulously orchestrated attacks originating from lineouts have set a high standard, likely to be copied globally post-tournament. Furthermore, they've scored 22 tries from first-phase plays, 18 of which stemmed from scrum and lineout strike plays. It is anticipated that their strategic masterminds - Schmidt, Ryan, and Foster - have meticulously prepared to dissect the South African defence in tonight’s game.

Other differences in playing styles are evident when you consider that New Zealand has managed to score 8 tries from kicks received (counter-attacks), whereas South Africa hasn't scored any in this manner. Instead, South Africa capitalises on opposition mistakes (turnovers), applying immense defensive pressure through increased line speed. Their tackle technique and pressure around the tackle area, led by the likes of Duane Vermeulen and Kwagga Smith, ensures that they dominate in creating the tournament's slowest defensive rucks. This strategy gives their defence time to regroup and launch another wave of pressure on their opponents.

With the inclusion of Pollard on the field, South Africa has effectively addressed the place-kicking issues that previously marred their performance against Ireland. Remarkably, Pollard maintains a flawless record, having not missed a single goal kick in this competition (9/9).

New Zealand faces the challenge of navigating South Africa's aggressive defence. Given the circumstances, the Kiwis might increasingly resort to aerial tactics. Interestingly, New Zealand has already employed more kicks than most teams in this tournament, surpassed only by England. They'll likely continue this in the final, utilizing chip kicks to counter South Africa's line speed, and exploiting the smaller stature of the South African wingers. Another potential strategy for the Kiwis might be to execute “rainbow” passes over the heads of the South Africa defence and to their wingers Jordan and Tele’a, a tactic that has previously found success against the Springboks.

However, the outcome may hinge on which team maintains composure throughout the 80-minute ordeal, a challenge that extends to the coaching staff as well. South Africa's discipline on the field has been commendable, with just one yellow card to their name. But their penalty count ranks among the highest in the tournament, presenting a potential area of advantage for New Zealand.

Lessons for the 2023 World Cup

The tournament has been yet another roller coaster for Northern Hemisphere rugby, delivering moments of promise yet leaving many still pondering their position against the Southern Hemisphere's rugby giants. A critical lesson appears to have been overlooked once again by the northern contenders. The stark reality is that southern hemisphere teams consistently arrive at the World Cup in peak form. Teams like New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, and Argentina were engaged in competitive games right up until July 29th, a mere five weeks before the World Cup's start. On the other hand, the northern hemisphere wrapped up their Six Nations tournament on March 18th, leaving a 24-week gap leading into the World Cup.

A glance through history underscores the disparity: out of ten tournaments, England remains the sole northern hemisphere team to clinch the World Cup title. A deeper exploration into their 2003 preparations reveals a critical strategic move: a victorious clash against New Zealand just seven weeks before the World Cup kick-off. This historic feat underscores the undeniable importance of adequate preparation and timely competition, a lesson that remains vital for the northern hemisphere as they strive to bridge the gap with their southern counterparts.

One of the most noticeable errors made by teams during this tournament has been in the handling of players' match minutes, and observing how South Africa and New Zealand have balanced their squad rotation serves as a valuable lesson to others. Indeed, having your top players on the field is crucial, but what sets the finalists apart is their long-term squad development over the last four to eight years. They have cultivated teams capable of adapting to specific game strategies, making tactical adjustments mid-game, and managing injuries or potential match suspensions. This holistic approach to squad management has undoubtedly played a significant role in their journey to the final and offers a blueprint for others aiming for success in future tournaments.

As rugby continues its journey into heightened professionalism, its resemblance to other sports, particularly football, becomes increasingly apparent. The familiar debates surrounding VAR in weekly football matches are now mirrored in rugby with the introduction of the "bunker systems" and frequent TMO interventions. Although these additions often lead to frustration among coaches, players, and fans, they have become an integrated component of the modern game. It's now up to World Rugby to streamline the application of these laws. While rugby is moving in the right direction, finding an immediate solution is challenging. Emphasising better officiating methods and enhancing referee training in the upcoming years is crucial for both World Rugby and unions. The frequent disagreements among experts and coaches over scrum penalties highlight a potential issue: some rugby laws might be overly intricate, warranting a revisit for clarity and simplicity.

The behaviour of some key personalities has provided a riveting subplot for enthusiasts of the sport. The early part of each week seems consumed by the previous weekend's controversies. From Rassie's traffic light system and the 7/1 bench splits to the recent unfortunate alleged racist incident targeting an English player, these events keep the sport in the spotlight. They either serve as a genuine means to retain media attention or as media diversion tactics reminiscent of Jose Mourinho's approach to shifting focus from team performance. While these spectacles might be part and parcel of professional sports, the primary attention should remain on the gameplay, not the distractions.

This week, World Rugby unveiled an innovative blueprint for the future of the international game by announcing the establishment of a new world league competition set to kick off in 2026. Under this new structure, teams from the northern hemisphere will face three southern opponents away in July, marking the end of the customary summer tours that typically feature two or three Tests against a single host country. This league format, reserved for summer and autumn matches will comprise two groups of six teams each from both hemispheres. This includes the teams from the Six Nations and Rugby Championship, alongside Japan and Fiji.

During the November window, matches will be held at the home stadiums of the northern

hemisphere nations. The competition will culminate with the top team from each group clashing in a grand finale, while the other teams engage in ranking play-off games.

Heeding the lessons from this tournament regarding the drawbacks of early scheduling,

the draw for the new structure will occur in January 2026, though this still sets it 20 months ahead of the 2027 event. Furthermore, the 2027 tournament will expand to encompass 24 teams, distributed into six groups of four, and will introduce a round of 16.

While these modifications promise to invigorate the top teams in global rugby, it's paramount for World Rugby to ensure Tier 2 nations receive ample competition to foster their growth. Equally critical is the allocation of resources to these countries to help bridge the gap with their more affluent counterparts.

The latest World Cup has witnessed a surge in viewership across participating countries, with stadiums selling out and attendances surpassing the 2019 tournament. Particularly, matches involving France and Ireland served as remarkable showcases, leaving organizers to rue the fact that both nations didn't make it to the semi-finals or finals. Global viewership has significantly expanded throughout the tournament, proving that World Rugby offers a product capturing global interest.

However, there's an evident need for World Rugby to modernise its engagement strategy with this increasing fanbase. The stringent restriction on sharing game video highlights on social media throughout the tournament was glaring. While safeguarding their brand is essential, striking a balance between brand protection and engaging new fans in understanding the game is crucial. Surprisingly, even participating coaches and tonight's referee, Wayne Barnes, faced bans on social media platforms for sharing game clips intended for game promotion. Given rugby's intricacies, establishing platforms that explain the game's subtle aspects could immensely benefit its global growth and understanding.

While many anticipate that the tactics of the winning team will be emulated globally in the forthcoming months and years, one must question what truly innovative strategies were unveiled during the 2023 World Cup. Apart from the strategies exhibited by the two finalists, the tactical palette seemed rather limited. Both France and Ireland claimed to have reserved certain tactics during their warm-up matches, yet when the crucial moments arrived, their playbook appeared to be exhausted. This was evident to the point that New Zealand's head coach labelled Ireland's strategy as a "copy & paste" attack, making it predictable and easy to counter.

The genuine strategic pioneers of this tournament were undoubtedly South Africa and New Zealand. As the northern hemisphere ponders their future game plans, they should deeply consider the direction rugby is headed in the next 4-8 years. Once the final whistle is blown tonight, and after the inevitable celebrations, both these powerhouse teams and their respective unions will already be envisioning the future landscape of the game.

The Currency’s coverage of the Rugby World Cup is sponsored by Interpath Advisory.

Interpath Advisory supports businesses, their investors, and stakeholders with critical financial advisory and restructuring services.  Enhanced by technology, Interpath’s purpose is to create, defend, preserve, sustain, and grow value. Interpath in Ireland operates across 3 offices in Dublin, Cork, and Belfast.