Last month, more than 6,000 people descended on Ireland for Dublin Aviation Week. It’s a gathering where deals are hammered out, and the pulse of the industry is taken in conference halls and overflowing meeting rooms.

The bustling event marked a major shift from just a few years ago, when the industry faced a once-in-a-lifetime threat in the pandemic.

“Post-Covid there was probably a slow down in the aviation market, everyone was a bit apprehensive but last year there was more positivity and this year even more so,” according to EY aviation finance sector leader Niamh Tobin.

Dealmaking among lessors and renewed investor interest have been a shot in the arm for the sector, even in the face of geopolitical challenges like tariffs and the ongoing supply constraints on new aircraft.

“There is a lot of new capital in the industry, a lot of private equity firms who aren’t currently in aviation but are keen to get into it, this includes private credit,” Tobin told The Currency. “There’s a huge amount of consolidation continuing to happen and portfolio sales so there’s a heavy pipeline of deals and the demand continues to outweigh supply.”

You need not look too far for signs of this bumper dealmaking. SMBC Aviation Capital is closing in on its $7 billion acquisition of Air Lease Corporation, which will create a major new player in the aviation leasing industry.

Tobin has been with EY for over 14 years and has witnessed the industry’s ups and downs in that time. Aviation, and particularly leasing, have been significant industries in Ireland for decades with most of the world’s top aircraft lessors headquartered in Dublin.

“I’ve been in the industry over 14 years now, I started in audit. Back then, in EY we had one key aircraft leasing audit client, fast forward to now where we have almost 40 per cent of the audit market share when you look at the top 50 lessors,” she said of the firms growth in the sector in recent years.

“Audit has been a really successful business for us, growing out the business, having that good reputation, getting to know the industry, all of the contacts, and then our tax client base was built out along with the other services.”

That service offering from EY has expanded to keep up with the rapid pace of the industry, Tobin added, in areas like Asset-Backed Securitisation (ABS) and servicing clients in contract lease management and aircraft Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO).

“We’ve actually taken a significant market share and really went beyond what we initially thought was possible,” she said of aircraft ABS services. “On the back office contract lease management , we’re the only big four firm offering this service.”

New investors

The flow of new money to the sector, from sources that typically would not have invested in aviation, has been a major factor in the industry’s post-Covid resurgence.

“We spend a lot of our time here in EY with US colleagues and clients on the private equity, private credit side who are keen to explore aviation, but don’t necessarily have the necessary depth of knowledge or expertise. This is where we come in, helping to educate them on the entire supply chain and the opportunities available across the sector,” Tobin explained.

Covid was one of the biggest shocks to ever hit the aviation industry, grounding planes and effectively shutting down the global travel market. It could have been the death knell for many in the industry but weathering the storm has shown how resilient its players can be.

“It’s probably given investors confidence because they’ve seen the worst that could happen in an industry and it didn’t fail.”

Another massive deal – AerCap’s €25 billion takeover of GECAS – took place during Covid, sending a strong signal to investors that the industry could endure.

Now with the SMBC-Air Lease deal nearing closure, attention will move to the next massive deal. Macquarie is lining up the sale of its aircraft leasing business Macquarie AirFinance.

Another recurring theme coming out of Dublin Aviation Week was supply and demand with Boeing and Airbus experiencing large backlogs of orders for aircraft from airlines and lessors. It’s a strain that puts pressure on timelines and forecasts.

However, Tobin explained, the merging of a handful of lessors into much bigger companies will give these larger lessors more sway in securing aircraft.

“This tends to make Tier 1 blue-chip lessors more competitive due to scale and deal execution.”

Consolidation and an over-concentration of lessors is not a major concern in the industry, Tobin added. Industry watchers meanwhile are keeping a close eye on deals beyond the aircraft leasing sector.

“On the maintenance, repair and overhaul piece, again you’re seeing a lot of consolidation there because the current MRO shops can’t keep up, they don’t have enough space, they don’t have the hangars, they don’t have the people to actually service the demand so they’re starting to buy some of the smaller ones who wouldn’t necessarily have the contracts or the full utilisation,” Tobin said.

“On the consolidation piece, they need help with making sure their processes are all aligned, that every shop – because they didn’t all originate from their current owner – are reading off the same hymn sheet, maybe they’re not using the same systems, that type of stuff.”

Tobin said the industry is seeing a lot of that type of activity in the Middle East and the US.

Geopolitical challenges

The flow of deals and money paints a positive picture for the industry but it still faces several headwinds, whether it’s geopolitics, tariffs and conflicts.

“Tariffs were and are a big thing and it’s very complicated, as manufacturers might be buying or manufacturing parts in different areas or jurisdictions right around the world,” Tobin said.

The industry has found a way to plough through the noise of on-and-off tariffs, she said.

“You’re always keeping your finger on the pulse. I think for the industry as a whole it’s really positive that global travel demands are back, that the interest rates have stabilised. Tariffs and geopolitical shifts are always going to be a risk but ultimately it’s about working through it,” she said.

Ireland remains a centre of excellence for aviation, she said, but that is a position that needs to be constantly maintained to keep up with, and overcome, global challenges.

“Our tax policy has always been very transparent, even with the new 15 per cent minimum corporate tax rate for large multinationals. It’s about making sure that we’re staying ahead of the others and that transparency is key” she said.

“The industry has been here over 50 years now and it’s here to stay because we have a great workforce, our universities are making sure the skilled labour is there.”

These investment in human capital and resources are key to ensuring Ireland stays ahead of the curve and can shield itself from global ructions.

“If there was a big tax policy change in the morning that made another jurisdiction more attractive, I’m sure that’s a big risk.”

Climate action

The industry is also constantly adapting and responding to changes in wider policy and geopolitical changes globally. In addition to the impact of tariffs, the change in sentiment surrounding ESG was another topic on the minds of delegates at Dublin Aviation Week.

In Europe, changes to with EU level measures, most notably the postponement of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive will affect several industries, including aviation as the majority won’t be required to report.

“The industry does have responsibility to make sure it’s doing what it can for the environment,” she said. “A lot of the big lessors already voluntarily report and they will have their ESG reports out there saying what they’re doing from an environmental, social and a governance perspective.”

Industry interest in sustainable fuels, like SAF, continues to grow too but companies are cognisant of the technical challenge in widespread use.

“We’re a considerable way away from any significant reliance on SAF because the reality at present it just can’t be produced quickly enough and at sufficient scale.”

“There’s always something new”

Aviation has traditionally been a male dominated industry – something that could be seen by the make-up of delegates at Dublin Aviation Week – but there is a fast-growing proportion of women in the sector and Tobin points to industry programmes like PropelHer that aim to attract more women into the sector.

“As a female, being the aviation finance sector lead for EY, I think that it’s really important that you’re starting to see, outside of professional services, a lot more female CEOs and CFOs in aircraft or engine lessors as well as on the boards,” Tobin said.

“It’s making sure women feel confident because it is still a male-dominated industry but it’s about encouraging women to look around see that you do have female advocates, you have role models now that you can look up to. Even in my team I would say probably 70 per cent are females.”

The broader array of professionals entering the space are driven by the vigour of the work, she added.

“A lot of the newer generation are excited about it. When I started I didn’t know anything about aviation finance but I think it’s just grown so much as an industry over the last 15 years that a lot more people are interested in it, they can see it’s a very competitive high-energy industry and everybody wants to do really well,” she said.

“You’re seeing so many new players, different structures, a lot of transactions, it’s very fast-paced. There’s always something new.”

This article is partner content and has been produced in association with EY.