Full coverage: Central banks

The Federal Reserve’s reputation for independence is more illusion than fact. From its origins tied to the Treasury to its modern role in inflating asset bubbles, the Fed has long served political and financial interests — leaving Wall Street unfazed by Trump’s latest assault on its leadership.

The eurozone will expand its fiscal stance at precisely the same time as the US is engaging in a fiscal contraction. This is one of a number of reasons why we should expect a much stronger EUR/USD exchange rate.

The rise in gold prices is set to continue, unless we see higher real interest rates combined with a large improvement in global risk appetite and international trade around the world. Neither scenario looks plausible at the moment.

As the Trump administration continues along the path of deficits-financed economic expansion, the question that investors must start asking is at what point will debt supply start exceeding debt demand, even with the Fed continuing to throw more cash on the fiscal policies bonfire?