News is getting darker by the minute. And markets’ or investors’ expectations serve as a poor guide through the storm to come because both vastly underestimate the amount of monetary pain due in months ahead. In basic terms, as 2023 begins, we are faced with two most likely scenarios. The first one is that the Central Banks’ aggressive rate hikes and quantitative tightening are likely to trigger a deep but relatively brief recession, necessary to contain inflation within a whisker of the 2 per cent target by the end of 2023, mid-2024. The second one is less publicized but no…

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