There are two games taking place at the Aviva this Saturday. The event — a celebration of sport in a stadium that will be rocking with anticipation — and the game itself.

Ireland are the world’s number one side and France are coming to town intent on taking that crown. 

With only seven months until the Rugby World Cup, Ireland has the chance to play France and maintain its world-leading position for the first time in Six Nations history. The three dominant southern hemisphere teams are now outside those rankings for the first time ever.

But while the noise will be of passion and heart, the reality of a game at this level – the highest level – is that it is a tactical battle to such a degree that even the physical battles are ultimately tactical battles.

“Make time for planning,” Stephen Covey advises, “Wars are won in the general’s tent.” It will be interesting to watch what the coaching staffs of Ireland and France have come up with when they buckled down in their own “War Rooms/salle de guerre,” surrounded by their analysts and match statistics.

Ireland’s attack patterns

Ireland’s attacking performance during the beginning of Andy Farrell’s coaching tenure was exceedingly sluggish, and their first phase attack plays were badly thought out. To his credit, he put those early ideas on hold and chose to find inspiration from the provinces.  In contrast to other international teams, which are made up of different players from different clubs, 

Farrell has successfully adopted the attack system that the bulk of his players play in their club. The attack is designed so that Ireland have more options than the defence can cover. At any one time, Ireland can go through teams with direct hard running, go around with slick passing and superior running lines or they can go over teams with intelligent kicking.

Ireland will look to continue using their three-man pod off the wide rucks with Sexton in behind. He will have an option of a two-man pod outside him too. This attacking pattern led to Ireland’s first two tries v Wales on Saturday. After hitting up the first Pod of three, Sexton used a dummy switch with the pod of two and passed behind to another wider back (Lowe) as Ireland kept Peter O’Mahony wide on the touchline. Ireland will play with Sexton as their main playmaker and have a very flexible system that allows one of the available backs to slot into a second passer position behind the pod of two. Dan Sheehan’s running in the wide channel like O’Mahony, which was very effective in the second half against Wales, will be missed against France. 

I expect France will look to put huge pressure on Sexton and may adopt a man marker system on him. The French scrum-half Dupont may be given the role of a floating defender and look to shoot up on an outside line to force Sexton into an error and look to prevent him from getting his passes away.  

France’s attack

Like Ireland, the French too have an attack system that will look to test the defence to its maximum. France will use a different attack system to Ireland, with their forwards playing between the two 15 metre lines. This  frees up the space in the wider channels when the backs want the ball. Like Ireland, they will play a pod of three off wide rucks but will have another pod of three standing wider. They will have two playmakers (10 & 15) dictating the attack. Watch out for the ball carrying 148 kg prop Atonio (3) who looks to run in the second pod of three. 

The lineout

I expect Ireland will look to force France to throw to the front of the lineout by positioning Beirne at the back and Ryan in the middle and offer France the front. 

This will prevent France from gaining quality ball to attack from and allow Ireland to put pressure through on to Dupont and Ntamack with those players at the back of their Lineout defence. 

However, these French coaches are a smart bunch and by looking at what they did in the November series v South Africa, I’d expect them to look to throw beyond the 15m line and gain possession in that area.  

Don’t rule out both teams moving to shorter lineouts to avoid the clutter of each other's defence. Ireland will still look to squeeze the middle and back of the lineout and force France to the front. While France may move to single lift defence pods to counter Ireland’s strength. However with Woki not available they may struggle to lift one of their big lineout jumpers. 

Penalty count

Last weekend, both teams struggled with team discipline, with Ireland giving up 13 penalties and France giving up 18. Shaun Edwards, the defence coach for France, was furious following the match on Saturday, and you can anticipate that it dominated much of this week's team discussions.

Ireland experienced problems in this area as well: Andrew Porter gave away six of Ireland's thirteen penalties. This will be a crucial aspect of this weekend's game because both teams have Sexton and Ramos, two elite kickers, and if last week's penalty count is repeated, both of these kickers will enhance the damage on the scoreboard.

The tackling stats

The question of which players wearing green shirts were missing tackles popped out on the match data from last week. Despite the fact that missed tackles may not result in scoring chances, they could give a side positive attacking momentum. Ringrose, Hansen, and Lowe all missed a significant portion of Ireland's total and were in parts of the field where the French may pose Ireland problems. Ireland must be certain that they can complete their tackles in the wider channels in order to prevent the French from generating attacking momentum.

The need for speed (ruck speed)

This Saturday, the speed of the ruck will be crucial for both teams. Both teams will be aiming for ruck ball under three second, which would allow the attack fluidly and prevent the defence from organising. Each defence will be able to place their defence more efficiently and speed up their defensive line to put more pressure on the attack if the ruck ball lasts longer than three seconds. At the weekend, 68.8 per of the rucks from France were completed in less than three seconds, while Ireland’s was 63.5 per cent.

France's hope

The French may take inspiration from how La Rochelle coach Ronan O'Gara orchestrated his team's 2022 European Cup victory, even though this game on paper resembles a Leinster vs. Toulouse match with 18 players from the two clubs competing on Saturday. Leinster's ruck ball was the focus of La Rochelle's constant disruption of their attack flow and strategy. Leinster's offensive numbers on the subsequent phases were decreased because they were forced to add extra players to win rucks. In the early stages of the game, France might approach Ireland in this manner. France may not play a free-flowing match, but they aren't travelling to Dublin to entertain the Aviva Stadium crowd.

Using the Jackal techniques of hooker Julian Marchand and the excellent backrowers Anthony Jelonch and Gregory Alldritt, France will try to slow down Ireland. The referee for this weekend, Wayne Barnes, will be keeping an eye on both teams as they attempt to slow each other down with some cunning technique, so it should be interesting to watch

Ireland, on the other hand, will try to employ a different strategy by leaving the support tackler on the other team's side, who will then "slowly" roll into the path of the opposing scrumhalf. This has been tremendously beneficial for Ireland in recent years, but if Wayne Barnes has done his homework for this weekend, it will lead to a large penalty count.

The winning team will be the one that can execute its strategy.  Under the intense strain of professional sport and the physical demands of rugby at the highest level, this is a huge task. The event will consume us as spectators but which team has the ability to absorb all the tactical planning will be the difference between defeat and victory, the factor which may yet decide whether it is France or Ireland who claim a grand slam.