At a recent BBC World Service discussion marking the first anniversary of the Russian war against Ukraine, I was asked by the presenter if the Russian economy has been performing in line with Western analysts’ expectations and forecasts for the first six months of 2022. My answer to the question was unequivocal: “No”.  Truth is, we know preciously little about what is happening on the ground in Russia these days. We know even less about what is happening in the markets for Russian imports, exports, and investments. But what we do know strongly indicates that our – Western – expectations…

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