In the first part of this series, titled “Defying Expectations”, I covered the dynamically evolving Western forecasts of the impact of Moscow’s war against Ukraine on Russian economic growth. Specifically, as noted in that article, the latest forecasts from the IMF envision 2023-2024 economic growth to average at around 1.2 percentage points per annum in real terms, with expected inflation moderating from 12.5 percent in 2022 to 4 per cent in 2023 and 2024. Put simply, the Russian economy has shown a surprising resilience to the ever-escalating Western economic sanctions. In trying to make sense of this performance, I have…

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