As we move into a new year, the hardy perennial of financial market forecasts will also loom large. More than any other time of year, this is when the strategists and soothsayers jostle loudest with their considered convictions for the year ahead. Unfortunately, such forecasts are at best a waste of time, and more likely a costly waste of time.  In their book, ‘Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future’, published just before the pandemic, John Kay and Mervyn King cite the thinking of both Nassim Nicholas Taleb and John Maynard Keynes to capture this unavoidable reality: “By uncertain knowledge,’…

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