Pat Rabbitte is well-schooled in the art of government formation. He was there in 1994 when the Rainbow coalition came together, and he was there too in 2011 when the Labour Party coalesced with Fine Gael after the collapse of both the economy and Fianna Fáil. In the former government, he was a member of Democratic Left, while in the latter, he was a Labour cabinet minister. In between, he helped negotiate a merger of the two left-wing parties, while also serving a stint as the leader of the Labour Party.

Rabbitte is also well-versed in what happened to the smaller parties after participating in government. The Rainbow coalition called the election at the wrong time, something Rabbitte readily acknowledges, and lost power. Had it held out for a couple of months, the Spring tide might have lasted longer. 

Meanwhile, support for Labour plummeted in 2016, a dramatic reversal of fortunes generally attributed to the party’s role in the austerity years. 

In reality, the party has yet to recover from that election. In 2011, it won 37 seats. In the November election, it secured 11. And that 11 was actually seen as a victory for the party, a comeback of sorts after obtaining just six seats in 2020. If you strip back the data, its increase in its overall share of the vote was minimal, but, due to the nature of the system, it was enough to boost seat numbers.  

At any rate, the number was enough to make the party at least relevant in government formation talks, even if it opts to discontinue negotiations with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Simon Harris and Micheál Martin do not have to cut a deal with Ivana Bacik, but, this time, they at least had to call her.

Bacik has not sought Rabbitte’s counsel, but if she did, he would advise her not to enter government. It is not that Rabbitte is scarred by the party’s last time in government, where he was a cabinet minister. Far from it. He believes the party hierarchy let itself down by not championing its achievements in that government and instead sought to distance itself from it.

Instead, he believes there will be a period of one-upmanship between Labour and the Social Democrats. If one goes into government, the other will seek to gain from sitting on the opposition benches. Ultimately, he believes a merger is inevitable, but in the meantime, both parties will be seeking whatever advantage they can manage.

But the real reason is the party is not needed to form a government. With Martin and Harris within a whisker of having the numbers, Rabbitte believes Labour would have had no leverage to push its own agenda or to thwart policies of the two larger parties that it opposes. 

Enda Kenny could have formed a government without Labour in 2011 but brought the party into the fold as he wanted as much cohesion and national unity as possible. This time, as Rabbitte argues, the situation is a world removed.  

“You now have a situation where the parties of the centre are prepared to pour out money at a rate that is dizzying. I made a joke during the election that I hoped Labour would get into government to get some control of the public finances,” Rabbitte told me last week. 

Instead, he believes Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will strike bargains with independents as it presents an easier route to power. 

But, he worries about what this means for two key areas most associated with the Green Party – climate and immigration.

“The two things the independents will put at the top of the agenda is to slow down climate action and to take a tougher line on immigration. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will pretend to be horrified, but they’ll go along with it. And I think we’ll take backward steps on climate action and make immigration more difficult,” Rabbitte says.

It is an interesting point by an astute observer of Irish politics. 

And it is a worrying one. 

The climate emergency is not going away and requires more endeavour by Ireland, not less. 

And immigration is going to be a defining issue in the decades ahead. We need a coherent policy and not one that can be shaped by a handful of independent parliamentarians. 

Rabbitte fears there will be a more reactionary policy agenda to these issues in a government propped up by independents, as opposed to a nuanced view. 

He is equally concerned about the lack of institutional memory – in politics, and in political debate. Take Ireland’s recovery from the bailout. Rabbitte is concerned that the lessons of that period will be forgotten. He was amazed at the spending promises in the recent election manifestos, although he tempers it with the argument the Programme for Government will be a different beast.

It is hard to disagree with him on the last point. The political establishment has moved to forget the Troika years as quickly as possible, even if it is the foundation of the current housing crisis – incidentally, Rabbitte has little faith in either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael getting to grips with that while they continue to pursue the same policies.  

The huge volume of corporation tax has allowed Ireland to recast its economy and has allowed the parties to make grand election pledges. 

However, as the serious issue of forming a government begins, it is crucial that policymakers look at the fragility of windfall corporation taxes and the increasing volatility of the wider global context, a point that Colm McCarthy made last week in his piece on the public spending code. 

With the right policy choices, Ireland can cement its future, or insulate it as much as possible from external threats. But as Pat Rabbitte, a man who was in politics for a recession, a boom, a collapse and a recovery, argues, we need to have institutional memory of the past to ensure past mistakes are not made.

Elsewhere last week…

On Thursday, we were the first to reveal that William Fry, one of the country’s largest commercial law firms, is in advanced negotiations to merge its practice with rival firm Eversheds Sutherland in a deal designed to create a new powerhouse in Irish law. The firm later confirmed it is in talks with senior representatives from the Irish affiliate of Eversheds about a deal. The proposed merger between William Fry and Eversheds comes at a time of increasing consolidation within the industry, and when a number of leading international law firms are entering the Irish market. 

The Planning and Environment Court is now a year old. Speaking to Alice, Mr Justice Richard Humphreys reflects on the early days of a crucial institution in Ireland’s ambition to develop more infrastructure, housing and energy projects.

Top Irish diplomat David O’Sullivan has served as EU ambassador to the US and is currently the bloc’s sanctions envoy. He talked to Francesca about stymying the Russian war machine, the return of Trump and Ireland’s place in a volatile global landscape.

Hamish Khayat is a member of the prominent Weston family. Brittany Stewart is a Chicago-born angel investor. Together, they want to make dental care affordable. And a host of investors, including Goldman Sachs, believe they can do it.

Ireland’s industrial relations are at a crossroads. From collective bargaining to remote work, Ibec executive Maeve McElwee discussed the changes that are reshaping the dynamics of work.