Eoin Ó Broin can feel the sentiment shifting.

Housing might be the defining crisis of this generation in Ireland, but, amid the lockdowns, the pandemics and the wars, the issue somehow became slightly less emotive, and less political.

The way Ó Broin sees it, people confused the growing number of cranes in the skies with actual housing completions and accepted the Government numbers on housing at face value. Housing was a key theme in last year’s election of course, but, with all the talk of Trump, trade and tariffs, it was not the dominant one. 

The level of public anger that peaked during Eoghan Murphy’s time in Custom House, and led to a surge in support for Sinn Féin, had slowly subsided. 

Now, however, Ó Broin says the anger is growing, fuelled largely by the steady stream of reports showing that housing targets are not being hit. Plus, he says the public felt misled by the Government’s insistence last year that it was on track for 40,000 housing completions, a number that turned out to be 10,000 too high.

“Anyone who knew anything about housing knew that the 40,000 number was impossible,” Ó Broin, Sinn Fein’s spokesperson on housing, says. “But the Government stuck by the number because they felt they could get away with it. They brass-necked their way through it.” 

The new Government has barely got going, but Ó Broin is convinced that the issue will be its “Achilles heel”. 

Give him a minute and Ó Broin will talk for an hour about what he believes are the systematic malfunctions within Irish housing policy, from social housing through to the role of institutional investors.  

But, stripping it back, he believes it is the data that has turned the tide. 

“Report after report after report all say the same thing – they are not hitting targets,” Ó Broin says. “And more reports are coming that will say the same thing. That resonates with people.”

The most recent report landed last week courtesy of the Central Bank. 

According to the bank, housing completions are forecast to increase to 35,000, 40,000 and 44,000 in 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively. 

However, this represents a downward revision in 2025 and 2026, something the bank attributes to slower momentum in 2024. It is forecasting a slight upward revision to 2027 compared to the forecast in December 2024.

Let’s put this into context. The Government has issued revised housing completion targets of 41,000 this year in its Programme for Government, up from the 34,600 figure in the Housing for All plan. 

The Central Bank is saying this number will be missed by more than 6,000. 

The targets for 2026 and 2027 are also set to be missed.

Although housing commencements rose by almost 69,000 units in 2024, the Central Bank adds there is uncertainty over the proportion of these commencements that are likely to result in completed dwellings in the period out to 2027.

If the headline numbers are poor, the rationale for the estimates is particularly sobering. The bank points to low productivity in the construction sector, delays in utility connection, delays in the planning system and a shortage of zoned and serviced land in high-demand areas.

I say sobering because they are issues that have been discussed – and widely known – for more than a decade. Plus, they are policy and legislative failures. Given the scale of this crisis, and the societal impact it has created, why are we still bemoaning delays in utility connection?

If the reasons are well-versed, there is nothing earth-shattering in the solutions the Central Bank offers.

The regulator favours making residential development a more investable sector by “incentivising more productivity, scale and modern methods of construction in the sector” and by “incentivising the most active use of available land for residential purposes”.

It also urges “maximising the available land for residential construction through adequate public infrastructure delivery and a more effective planning regime, especially in urban areas”.

It is impossible to read the Central Bank report without thinking its authors have lost faith in the Government’s housing plan. “We now have two organs of the State with widely different forecasts of housing output, and one of them is government,” one senior government aide confided to me last week.

There is a bigger issue here also. Even if the Government achieved its targets, those targets are still way too low. Ronan Lyons, the Trinity professor who is one of the most prescient commentators on housing policy, has long argued that the 40,000 number is 20,000 too light. 

In a recent report, Davy went further, arguing that Ireland will need to build 93,000 homes a year to meet demand between now and 2031.

According to Davy, Ireland’s population will reach six million by 2031 and, based on that projection, it will take close to 93,000 new units each year for the housing stock per adult to return to its previous ratio of 0.55. Even at that number, Ireland would still be at the bottom of the range for high-income European countries.

“While our forecast that housing output will reach 75,000 would not fully resolve the shortage, it would be enough to stabilise liquidity for owner-occupier and rental markets, helping address the chronically low levels of stock available to buy or rent,” according to Davy.

Davy is quick to caveat that 75,000 number by saying it can be achieved if a series of reforms are implemented such as targeted efforts to reduce housing construction costs, and further streamlining of the planning system for critical infrastructure.

“In the absence of necessary reforms, however, a lower level of output well below the overall need is instead likely,” according to Davy.

The firm says Ireland’s strict rent controls should be changed as a matter of urgency to avoid a cliff-edge decline in the output of apartments beyond 2026.

“Other key reforms should make the waiver on development levies and the rebate for water charge connection fees permanent, reduce Vat on construction to aid viability, and to further streamline the planning process to reduce uncertainty for developers of new housing,” the firm said.

Again, there is nothing revolutionary here. Ó Broin has actually proposed many of those things over the years (albeit not concerning rental caps). 

Talking to Ó Broin, however, it becomes clear that he feels we need a different sort of conversation. 

He feels the Government has continually sought to zero in on “big things” such as the rental caps on the assumption that those “big things” will make a big difference.

Not so, according to Ó Broin, who feels more effort needs to be put into developing the capacity and sustainability of small and medium-sized builders and developers – the sort of people who build housing estates in provincial towns. 

He has a point. The gulf between the two big listed housebuilders, Cairn and Glenveagh, and everyone else is worrying large. If we are to solve this crisis, we need more people building more houses. Relying on institutional investors alone is not enough. 

As public frustration rises, the issue will dominate politics once again.

Elsewhere last week…

Former Formula 1 team owner Eddie Jordan died last week aged 76. The Dubliner made an unforgettable impact on Formula 1 but his friends and family spoke last week of a legacy that reaches far beyond motorsport. “Nobody in the history of the world will start a Formula 1 team from nothing on their own,” Michael Brady, who handed him his first sponsorship deal, said. “You couldn’t write the script of his life. He had two movies in him.”

Gary Fox started the Entrepreneur Experiment podcast six years ago to pick the brains of founders. Since then, it has morphed into a one-man media business. He talked through the process and the product with Jonathan.

Scott Sutherland, director of Codling Wind Farm, talked to Alice about leading the State’s biggest renewable energy project, supply chain squeezes, and whether the 1.3 GW array will be operational in time to hit climate targets.

The Irish video-game services giant Keywords Studios saw a bumper exit to EQT last year. Since then, it has continued with job cuts globally and homed in on AI. Jonathan had a deep dive into the company.