The so-called trade deal between the EU and the US that has been drip-fed to business operators on both sides of the Atlantic seems to follow the script of those infuriating films where the scenario constantly flashes back and forward, leaving viewers to lose the plot entirely.

Following the Scottish meeting between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, where she promised “certainty” last Sunday, their respective administrations issued separate documents on Tuesday. 

Both sides confirmed they had agreed a 15 per cent headline tariff on EU goods shipped to the US, including the pharmaceuticals and semiconductors so important to Ireland, and the elimination of existing EU tariffs on US imports of industrial goods such as cars. The punitive 50 per cent duty on steel, aluminium and copper entering the US was to stay, however.

They also released agreed figures on promises of EU purchases of investments in favour of the US. Peter’s initial analysis on Monday that these were merely aspirational has been confirmed by most observers since then.

The rest of the explainers published by the White House and the European Commission on Tuesday diverged significantly. Where Trump boasted that “this colossal deal will enable US farmers, ranchers, fishermen, and manufacturers to increase US exports,” the EU limited itself to promising “better market access” for agricultural and fishery products, subject to quotas and specific categories yet to be confirmed.

The Commission expected a tariff exemption for products including “aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals, certain drug generics or natural resources”. This was not confirmed in the White House document.

The question then arose of when the details of this handshake deal would be set and communicated to trading companies. The European Commission said on Tuesday that newly agreed US tariffs would apply from August 1. 

That same day, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick spoke on CNBC television, raising eyebrows when he said of his continuing negotiations with the EU: “There’s plenty of horsetrading still to do.”

One thing we have learned about Trump’s tariff announcements is that they typically don’t take effect on the date announced. Surely enough, a presidential executive order dropped on the eve of August 1, confirming the 15 per cent inclusive general tariff on EU imports… with effect seven days later.

In the meantime, the European Commission’s trade spokesperson Olof Gill kept repeating to anyone who asked that the non-binding details published on Tuesday would be firmed up in an equally non-binding joint statement with the US “in the coming days”, after which technical discussions would still be required to determine the exact new terms of transatlantic trade.

At the time of writing, there was no sign of a joint statement and the Commission had gone into radio silence until that happens. There is every possibility that the August 7 deadline will be extended again while negotiations continue.

These are far from trivial dotting of Is and crossing of Ts. The exact list of products exempt from new US tariffs has yet to be clarified. The EU is hoping for concessions including on spirits, which could be make-or-break for the Irish whiskey industry. Other member states are pushing the Commission to negotiate these more vigorously.

The US has not closed the door on additions to the exemptions list but will look for something in return. Lutnick told CNBC: “Digital services taxes and the attack on our tech companies, that is going to be on the table.”

His analysis of why the EU took the overall 15 per cent deal was to protect its pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries from higher tariffs expected in the next two weeks as the US concludes investigations into these sectors. This is credible, and would explain why pretty much everything else under what promises to be a complex trade deal remains to be negotiated.

Yet, even assuming Trump remains true to his word on pharma and chip tariffs, they are not the only way his administration can disrupt those industries – along with their presence in Ireland. In the same breath as his latest tariffs executive order, the US president disclosed on Thursday night that he had written to the major pharmaceutical companies (including major Irish employers and taxpayers such as Pfizer, AbbVie and Eli Lilly) to strong-arm them into charging American patients no higher prices than they do in any other developed nations.

This could throw as big a spanner as tariffs in the works of an industry using Ireland as a tax-friendly manufacturing base to export a portion of its drugs to high-paying US customers.

A lot of dust has yet to settle between governments on both sides of the Atlantic and elsewhere. Then arbitrage will start within multinationals among the many options at their disposal to mitigate the cost of tariffs.

This will include comparing destinations for their future investments, with key manufacturing hubs like China and Mexico still negotiating their own deals with the US. Regarding the five-point difference in US tariffs between the UK and the EU, the jury is still out, experts told Michael on Friday (unlike the EU’s inclusive 15 per cent, the US has now indicated that the UK’s 10 per cent tariff is in addition to existing rates, which means line-by-line implementation may result in very different competitive outcomes in different sectors).

In the meantime, the businesses that keep international supply chains running, such as the growing Irish office of German freight forwarding giant Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, Hellman’s boss in Ireland Niamh Savage told Jonathan.

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Elsewhere last week, Alice unveiled the strife that erupted between board members of the Port of Cork Company at the time of the appointment of its new chief executive, Ann Doherty. The new revelations follow earlier allegations of conflict of interest made by her predecessor.

Lawyers in the multi-million-euro legal clash over who gets to buy the 751-acre Barne Estate in the Golden Vale presented their closing arguments to the judge. The final stages of the marathon trial saw a rare public appearance by John Magnier’s rival bidder for the property, Maurice Regan. Francesca was in the High Court.

Tom sat down with John Reynolds for a detailed interview. As he departed the chair of Cairn Homes, Reynolds told the story of how he rose through the ranks of Ireland’s banking industry and what he learned from Cairn on the potential solutions to the housing crisis.

Hannah concluded her series on Irish emigrants growing their business career in Dubai with an interview with food entrepreneur Saifa Kajani, who has just opened her Cookie Dealer cafe in the Emirati city. Kajani said that she found it more affordable to make mistakes in Dubai, and explained why she has decided to close her initial business in Dublin.