The global economic outlook is uncertain, to say the least. The quality of governance in the US, the country that was once the world’s anchor of stability, is increasingly resembling the western hemispheric average. The direction of travel is towards banana republicanism. The independence of the Federal Reserve is under assault, state capacity has been bludgeoned by unthought-out reforms, the fiscal outlook is dire, and the effects of the most radical experiment in tariff policy ever initiated by a large economy are just beginning to be felt. All of this has caused recession risk indicators to start flashing red. In…

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