Gary Murphy understands politics better than most.

And he understands politics because he understands people.

Yes, his day job is with DCU, where he is a full professor of politics. But he also writes columns for national and international newspapers, commentates regularly on broadcast media, and authors books. His book on Charles Haughey is essential reading for anyone interested in Irish politics (or Irish society), and he is currently finalising a book on Brian Cowen.

But, more importantly, he chats with a wide range of people. Some are his students. Some are people he meets at GAA matches. Some are people who call him looking for his views (myself included).

And the way Gary Murphy sees it, Catherine Connolly has done something quite remarkable.

No, she has not unified the left in the way that many political observers claim. And no, she has not refocused the nature of the presidency as some of her supporters might claim.

But her campaign has resonated.

Not everyone might agree with her worldview. But she is passionate and unapologetic about it. And this has made an impact on people, particularly young people.

Murphy has seen it first hand, out on the campus of DCU, where he likens the energy surrounding her campaign to that of Mary Robinson back in 1990. 

“Most of my own students are engaged, and almost to a man or a woman, are voting for Catherine Connolly. They are much more energised and enthused by her than by Heather Humphreys,” he told me in a podcast published yesterday. 

He later added:  “There does seem to be a bit of a government, anti-government view.”

It is not just in DCU. I have spoken to academics in a host of other institutions over the past week. The response is near universal: Catherine Connolly is the preferred candidate to be the next president of Ireland among that cohort. 

And it is not just in colleges. 

On Thursday, an Irish Times poll found that Connolly, on 38 per cent, has almost double the support of her rival, Heather Humphreys. The former Fine Gael deputy leader was left sitting on 20 per cent. 

As the paper’s political editor, Pat Leahy, commented, barring a dramatic shift, only a political earthquake could stop her winning the ballot.

It makes you think. How could an independent candidate, with a previously low national profile, unite the left, dismantle the centre and nullify the right?

The answer, it seems to me, is centred around the nature of this particular presidential contest, and also what people want from a presidential contest – and a presidential candidate. 

I don’t believe Catherine Connolly’s rise signals a dramatic shift in politics. 

But it reaffirms the view that people, of various political hues, are looking for different things in presidential discourse than in normal rank-and-file politics. 

If she wins, and most observers are now confident she will win, it will be a significant blow to the Government. 

Yet, if there were a general election in the morning, the chances are that the same government, more or less, would be elected.

People are looking for different things in a president from what they are in a government. 

They want a government to do the ugly stuff that we know needs to be done – dismantle the triple lock, cosy up to Trump, do deals with multinationals. 

But they want a president to speak to more nuanced values – about Ireland’s place in the world, and what that world looks like. 

Catherine Connolly has done that throughout the campaign. Heather Humphreys has not.

The Fine Gael candidate has not put together a coherent message for her campaign. Yes, as Murphy told me, she has spoken a lot about community and unity. But it has not resonated with people enough to distract from her obvious connections with the Government.

Her initial campaign plan seemed to be about not making any mistakes, picking up Jim Gavin’s transfers, and easing her way into the Áras without any controversy. With Gavin out of the race, this strategy imploded, and her campaign has struggled badly to redefine itself. 

Connolly, meanwhile, has spoken about militarisation, about Europe, and about social justice. Some of her views are contradictory; others are wrong. But she has set herself up as the linear successor to Michael D Higgins, a man who sought to use the presidency to hold a mirror to the country, and a man, lest we not forget, who is hugely popular.

The presidency has changed since 1990. Yes, the primary role is to uphold the constitution, and as such, there are huge guardrails around what a president can and cannot do. 

But it has long moved from being an arm of the government. 

Connolly has also been streetwise. She is, of course, of an entirely different political view to Donald Trump. But she has evoked many of his tactics – she has talked consistently about smear campaigns and media bias.

There is no real evidence for any of this, but it has helped to avoid providing serious answers to many hard questions, such as her views on Russia.

It has helped set her up as an anti-establishment candidate, despite her being a barrister, a parliamentarian of many years’ standing, and a former leas-cheann comhairle of the Dáil. 

It has also helped separate her from Humphreys, who, despite her best efforts, is unable to unshackle herself from a government she served for so long. 

At the beginning of this campaign, I suspected that people would desire a placeholder president, particularly after the various interjections by Michael D Higgins. I was wrong. 

Ultimately, Catherine Connolly’s campaign highlights the gap between what people want from a government and what they want from a president. Governments are expected to make tough, sometimes unpopular decisions. Presidents, by contrast, are symbols, mirrors of the nation’s conscience, voices for ideals that can’t always fit into a legislative agenda.

The success of the Connolly campaign shows that the Irish electorate knows the difference, choosing a government for pragmatism and a president for principle.

Elsewhere last week…

We have grown accustomed to financial scandals. We expect little from our banks. And we accept far too much. But AIB’s treatment of the Belfry investors is nothing less than disgraceful. For the past few months, Francesca has worked tirelessly on a two-part podcast investigation on the scandal. We made the decision to place it outside the paywall, and I urge you also to listen to it. For all AIB’s talk about cultural rehabilitation, this tells a different story. I want to thank all the people who agreed to be interviewed, and I also want to thank Beacon Studios, who recorded the interviews and engaged heavily with the project. 

Multiple All-Star Bernard Brogan has taken the principles of elite sport into the business world. With Legacy Communications and the fast-growing tech firm PepTalk, the former Gaelic footballer is helping companies boost culture, performance – and purpose. I spoke with him in the latest episode of Sports Matters.

An 11 per cent rise in M&A activity, a surge in foreign acquisitions, and mega fundraises show that dealmaking in Ireland is not just surviving global uncertainty, but growing, according to the latest Renatus report. We had the details.

In a rare interview, David Widger, managing partner of A&L Goodbody, talked about the corporate deals that helped shape his career, working through boom and bust, and why he would like a second term as the firm’s managing partner.