Financial markets have an extraordinary capacity to learn. Every morsel of news is absorbed into their ever-changing prices every millisecond of every day. Small wonder they are so hard to beat. Asset prices have risen strongly in recent years. Across stock, credit and property markets, risk has been rewarded.  Unsurprisingly, this has roused a loudening chorus of crash predictions. And of course, someday they will be right. Unsurprisingly, these predictions are also broadly fearful of threats which have proved painful in the past. For example, there are what Paul Krugman insightfully calls the public debt scolds. Ever emboldened by public…

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