Much of the forecasts for the US, and global, economy coming out in recent weeks have been sounding the prospects for firmer growth. The year ahead is largely expected to be better than 2025 when it comes to headline GDP figures, marginally stronger in terms of financial markets performance, yet worse when it comes to labour market expectations. This paradox – commonly known as a “K-shaped economy” – is not new. And it is worrying. Headline numbers look fine The US’s economic strength, both compared to historical averages and across its peers, is evident in the relatively robust rates of…

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