Stories
Andy Farrell doesn’t have a lot to gain from victory over Italy this weekend. Ireland go into this game looking for a bounce in belief and a clearer picture on what progress has been made under Farrell, but big wins over Italy merely maintain a holding pattern. There’s even a murmur that the result is in some doubt, that is against the might of Zebre and Benetton who have a combined total of 3 wins in 23 games this season.
For all the changes Farrell has made in the pack, this is still close to Ireland’s strongest selection and you can sense a growing agitation among pundits and the public for some sign that the post-Schmidt sailing has at least left the harbour.
Are the players like animals born in captivity that when finally let free into the rainforest take a sniff of the fresh air and walk back into their cage?
Going by Mike Catt’s remarks this week that “chances” are being created but the players aren’t finishing them, and that “we’ve got some deep thinkers in the team and some of them just need to free themselves up a little bit and go and play the game”, you’d have to conclude the shackles are officially off.
We aren’t seeing any sign of that on the field though, so are the players like animals born in captivity that when finally let free into the rainforest take a sniff of the fresh air and walk back into their cage?
Billy Burns and Jamison Gibson Park, who started against France with this licence to play, both played almost exactly the same way as Sexton and Conor Murray would have done back in 2019.
What’s really puzzling about the post Schmidt era is how similar it feels to the latter part of the Schmidt era – mostly the same group of players, a lot of the same coaches, an attack that is still ruck focused and rarely offloads, bundles of box kicks, and the same defensive vulnerability out wide.
But the players, and you have to assume they’re speaking from the heart, keep saying how different things are under Farrell. This week Sexton said “it’s very different to what it was before, but we will be better for this going forward, of that I’m convinced. If we talk about World Cup cycles, I might not be part of the full cycle but this group will definitely be the better for this type of coaching and structures”.
So either the players aren’t good enough to implement the current game plan, or Catt and Farrell are not communicating the plan correctly, or the third possibility, which is maybe what Catt is hinting at, is that the players can’t rid themselves of their inner Schmidt voice and need a little longer to get over their Stockholm Syndrome.
The next three games are going to be really interesting for those who follow Irish rugby because we will find out if these coaches are a good fit for this group and if our underage and school systems and our culture are suited to this freedom of expression.
The fact that Sexton is back starting against Italy, his injury profile, his age and the remarks he made this week about a one-year contract inevitably makes us all think of RWC 2023 but the truth, we all know, is Ireland won’t have all their best players available in 2023.
They will lose plenty to injury, some to loss of form, some to a ban, and others will commit the sin of playing for a club in another country.
The realities and optics of concussion, as well as a growing number of court cases, might force the sport to move at a rapid pace
And it’s not just about Farrell, or the next coach, losing the players they plot and plan with for this cycle; the sport itself will evolve. The rules will have changed by 2023, in a subtle or dramatic way.
The realities and optics of concussion, as well as a growing number of court cases, might force the sport to move at a rapid pace and the game could in a few short years be unrecognisable from the one we currently watch.
But even if it’s only a subtle change, rugby, of all the global sports, alters the rules and the interpretation of those rules faster than any other. This has the knock on effect of favouring different types of players and new coaching strategies.
For example, Australian Super Rugby is currently trialling the 50/22 rule which awards a team the throw-in to a lineout should they kick the ball from inside their own half and get it to bounce before going out in the opposition 22. If adopted worldwide this will force wingers to defend deep and encourage coaches to select 10s such as Jack Carty, who can make the ball dance and spin after it leaves their boot.
In recent times Eddie Jones and Rassie Erasmus have spotted that kicking well and often will reap huge rewards. Before that it was Shaun Edwards and a wave of rugby league men showing us that defence could be turned into attack. Chop tacklers like Dan Lydiate and Will Connors, for example, have gone in and out of fashion and as seen in this year’s Six Nations, players that don’t know how to enter a ruck legally will soon disappear from match day team-sheets.
Good coaches find a way to cope and bad ones make themselves reliant on one player.
Even the greats are impacted. In 2018 Beauden Barrett looked on course to be the best outhalf of all time with his winger’s speed and lightning reflexes. He had (and still has) the potential to change the way the game is played, such was his ability to take the ball right to the gainline, but in 2019 a tweak in trends saw Barrett get moved to fullback as the top teams all started to favour 10’s who could control the game.
South Africa just won the last World Cup without using Handre Pollard all that much. He’s an excellent player but in the semi final and final their forwards made all the big plays and their scrum half Faf De Clerk made almost all the key decisions.
Good coaches find a way to cope and bad ones make themselves reliant on one player.
New Zealand won the World Cup in 2011 with Stephen Donald, who had been whitebaiting on the Waikato river before injuries to Dan Carter, Colin Slade and Aaron Cruden forced Graham Henry to call up their, at a stretch, fourth best fly half.
Wales made it to the semi final in 2019 with Dan Biggar, a solid and reliable 10, but no world beater. They had a brilliant defence, mental toughness and a simple game plan they all believed in.
Bear in mind too Ireland have stunk up previous World Cups with three of our all-time greats – David Humphreys, Ronan O’Gara and Johnny Sexton – starting at 10. We played the 2011 Quarter Final against Wales with a backrow of Stephen Ferris, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip but Gatland and Edwards read Kidney’s plan like a book. Having your first choice players available is no inoculation against disaster.
Not that Ireland should be thinking about winning World Cup or making it to semi finals, but a far better predictor of success than what outhalf or winger or hooker you pick two and half years before the event starts is the clarity between the coach’s plan and what the players do on the field.
The modern game is not about the coach picking his players, choosing his style and digging his heels in for the next few years; Schmidt learnt that in 2019. It’s about adapting to the opposition, to the laws, to the ref, to the weather, to injuries, to who’s in form, and, above all, to have belief and a collective understanding of what sort of team you want to be.
Simon Hick is a Second Captains producer
