I meet Marie Donnelly in Kinsale, Co Cork on a warm, pleasant day allowing late-season tourists to enjoy their lunch outside the town’s cafes and restaurants. There can be only two reasons for the clement weather: the Irish climate’s well-known ability to detect when children head back to school, and immediately turn up the thermostat; or the more sinister influence of global warming.

It is to discuss the second option that I have come to meet the new chair of the state’s Climate Change Advisory Council in the seaside town, where she has been based since retiring from a three-decade career in Brussels a few years ago. “I’m a pharmacist by training. But at a very early stage, many, many years ago, I joined the European Commission and spent time in different departments. My last 10 years were spent in DG Energy where I was director for renewable energy, energy efficiency, and innovation and research,” she says. “When I then retired from the commission, I set up Renewable Energy Ireland, which is an open platform of all of the industries who are delivering on renewable energy in the country.”

Her official CV also discloses past directorships and advisory board memberships at the Tipperary Energy Agency, the E3G European energy think-tank, and the academic bodies MaREI in Cork and UCD Energy Institute in Dublin. Her early career included stints with the Federation of Irish Chemical Industries and Kerry Group, and she remains a senior public affairs consultant to the communications agency Hume Brophy in Brussels.

As she and other members of the Climate Change Advisory Council are now playing a key role at the top of the policy pyramid built by new legislation, I ask her about independence from previous colleagues with vested interests in Ireland taking a particular course of action when addressing greenhouse gas emissions.

“The Climate Change Advisory Council is an independent scientific body and our function is to advise government on actions for climate change,” she says. “It’s very important for the council and its members to be open and interact with stakeholders because it’s important for us to hear and to learn from our conversations with them. But the council is guided, and indeed, instructed, you might say, by the legislation. The legislation is very clear, we have to use the most available up-to-date science, we have to adhere to the 51 per cent objective by 2030 and be net-neutral by 2050.”

“A five-year carbon budget says: This is the maximum amount of emissions that we can give off during the five-year period.”

The new Climate Act enacted at the end of July gives Donnelly’s council responsibility to draft carbon budgets calculating the trajectory the national economy must follow year after year if it is to meet these challenging targets in emissions cuts. The legislation adds a number of caveats: “We have to take consideration, for example, of biogenic methane and its special characteristics, we also have to be aware and sensitive to the implications of the budget, for example, on employment, on the investment in the state and the attractiveness of the state. And of course, we also have to look at social justice as part of this process,” says Donnelly.

In this task, she is part of a 14-strong council  (up from 11 previously), with the final seat now in the process of being filled. Donnelly’s predecessor in the chair, economist John Fitzgerald, remains as a member. Donnelly prides herself in having achieved gender balance and a broad age mix on the council. “It’s certainly very diverse now, in terms of backgrounds and experience,” she says. “So we have macroeconomists, we have people who have worked in industry, we have people in the trade union sector, we have environmentalists, we have experts in transport. We have climate scientists, one of whom was a rapporteur with the IPCC. We have people from agriculture, from Met Éireann, from the EPA.”

While the Minister for Finance’s annual budgets set the tax and public expenditure constraints within which the national economy must function, their carbon budgets will perform the same role for greenhouse gas emissions. 

As the interview progresses, we enter a step-by-step discussion of this new climate order. 

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Step 1: Drafting the carbon budgets

Marie Donnelly (MD): A five-year carbon budget says: This is the maximum amount of emissions that we can give off during the five-year period. One of the significant changes for the council as a result of this new act is that the council is called upon to make recommendations to government on these five-year budgets. Our first recommendation will be for the period 2021 to 2025. The second period will be 2026 to 2030. And then for 2031 to 2035, we will make a provisional recommendation. Obviously, that will be adjusted as necessary in the light of events.

Thomas Hubert (TH): What will it look like? What will the carbon budget, as a document, contain?

MD: Most probably, it will be a letter to the minister saying: “Dear Minister, this is our advice or recommendation.” Of course, we will have numbers. We will have a number for each of the budget periods, which is the maximum emissions in the budget. It will be accompanied by a technical report, which illustrates the analysis that we have done, the dialogues that have taken place, the interactions that we have had, the modelling that we have used, the presentations that we have received. All of that will be presented then in a technical report that will come with the letter, which sets out how the council has addressed each of the criteria in the legislation and how we have then, on that basis, come up with a recommendation for the carbon budget numbers.

TH: Those numbers, will they be just one overall – in the next five years, for example, we need to reduce our net emissions by so much if we want to stay within the overall target? Or is it going to be more detailed than that, with: So much of this should be carbon dioxide; so much of this should be methane; so much of this should be removals from the atmosphere? How far down in detail are you planning to drill down at that level of the carbon budget submitted to government?

MD: The legislation requires us to come forward with a carbon budget which is all economy, all gases, emissions and removals. So it’s likely to be a single number without identifying which gas or which sector does what. That’s the part that comes in the second stage, when the government then takes the budget and allocates it across the sectors.

Why are we still waiting for the first carbon budget?

Under the new Climate Act, the Climate Change Advisory Council must draft the first carbon budget this year for the period 2021-2025, retroactive to January 1. Donnelly acknowledges a “small delay” in getting this out because the legislation introduced a last-minute government-sponsored obligation to account for carbon that is sucked out of the atmosphere as well as the gases that are released, and the council needs agreed rules on how to measure this.

“Part of the act was an amendment that was introduced in the Seanad about how to account for emissions and removals, and the government must bring in a regulation as to how to do that,” she says. “The minister has consulted with us on how best to formulate that regulation. Because we need that regulation before we can come up with a budget, because we have to take this into account as part of the budget.”

Technical considerations include which metric will be used to account for the climate impact of such removals, and how to calculate the baseline set as 2018 in the Climate Act. “How accurate is 2018 when you’re talking about a biophysical process like forestry or land? So perhaps you might take three years and an average for that. It’s these kinds of nuances – to get that clarified in the regulation so that we can then use that as part of our recommendation of the budget.”

Once a regulation from Minister for the Environment Eamon Ryan is published, Donnelly expects the carbon budget to follow shortly afterwards. “I do hope it’s weeks. I don’t say how many weeks.”

Step 2: Sectoral targets – where the hard choices begin

The carbon budget drawn up by the Climate Change Advisory Council must be formally adopted by government. As an expert recommendation based on agreed calculation methods, this part should not get too caught up in political wranglings, but the ultimate policy decision remains a political one. 

As I wrote when the Climate Bill was first introduced last year, the influence of the pandemic and tensions between public health advice and political decisions is palpable. The legislation was drawn up to avoid a repeat of this, with a clear role for scientific input in measuring the size of the challenge and responsibility resting with politicians in choosing and delivering the response.

“With that recommendation – obviously government has to choose whether they accept it or not – that budget then is allocated across sectors,” says Donnelly. This is where her council’s role ends for the moment – and where the hard choices begin.

MD: That’s a political decision. So that will be done at a policy, political level in the government, with responsible ministers being allocated their share of that overall budget, and having the responsibility to achieve it once the sectoral targets have been established. They will go to our Oireachtas for endorsement. There is quite a formal procedure set out in the act as to how all of this happens.

TH: Do you have any input in that process when the government receives your draft, your overall number, and goes into the divvying up between sectors? Can they go back to you and say: “Is this correct, what we’re doing?” Can they ask for further recommendations to do this sectoral allocation?

MD: Firstly, it is a government action. But the council is an advisory council and if the government would like to have advice on any aspect, we stand ready to give us

TH: And it would be technical and scientific?

MD: Absolutely, yes. 

Step 3: The Climate Action Plan – “a very important document for people and industry”

The government’s sectoral targets constitute the broad-stroke sharing of the burden across the economy: Can some industries achieve more or faster than others? Shall we continue to shield agriculture from a portion of nationwide emissions cuts? How much of an additional challenge does this imply for transport or heating?

This, however, remains far removed from the day-to-day running of a business or a farm. 

MD: Then how do we actually achieve that is the question, and that’s where the Climate Action Plan comes in. We’ve had one in 2019 and we will have another updated version in 2021. Under normal circumstances, the Climate Action Plan would be updated every year because, not least of which, some of the actions will be completed, and we’ll move on to new ones.

That sets out the precise actions, policy changes, indeed legislative amendments should it be the case, that will be undertaken in order to achieve success in each of the sectors. This is a document that is produced by the Department [of the Environment]. They are in intensive discussions with other departments and indeed sectoral bodies in order to arrive at the actions that need to be done to achieve this.

It’s a very important document, actually, for people and industry to look at because that sets out what the roadmap is for each of the sectors and what the thoughts and ideas are of the government departments in terms of the initiatives that they want to take. That’s a process that happens every year. It’s updated as we go along. 

TH: So the Climate Action Plan is the government saying, for example: the Minister for Agriculture needs to get farmers to plant so many more trees and maybe reduce cows by so many numbers, if that’s the policy they choose; or we need to replace so many diesel cars with so many electric cars?

MD: The Climate Action Plan is actually very precise. It’s not high level – we need so many hectares… – it’s quite precise about the kinds of actions that need to be taken. It might be an adjustment in legislation, additional funding, tax measures. There are many, many different ways – maybe how the CAP, for example, would be applied.

So there are very precise actions and measures in the Climate Action Plan. Most of them are grouped into categories and, for each category, we have an idea as to what it is we’re trying to achieve specifically in that category.

Whilst it might be a situation that you might not get something done in 2022 and it would go to 2023, you might still get your achievement. But if for example, something planned for 2022 doesn’t happen until 2025, then we know it’s unlikely that we will achieve the objective there. So yes, this is really an outcomes-based approach to delivering on the actions and the results.

Marie Donnelly: “There is a very large amount of innovation going on in that space.”. Photo: Thomas Hubert

Step 4: Annual Reviews – how did we do?

MD: The real question – because of course, at the end of the day, we want to have a successful outcome – is to monitor the extent to which these policies, these actions are actually achieved, so that we reduce our emissions. And that’s where the council comes back in as part of its annual review.

Normally in the autumn, we will go through the Climate Action Plan, each of the actions, each of the sectors: Are we on track? Have we achieved what it is we said we wanted to achieve? Do we need to do more? Are there issues that need to change?

TH: Is there also an element of verifying whether the plan works? I can imagine situations where something was planned by the government, and it was actually done. But it turns out the scientific result in terms of emissions is not as good as hoped. Will you be looking at that as well?

MD: Yes, indeed. And indeed this can happen. Hopefully, it will happen in the other way. The reason why the Climate Action Plan will be updated every year is because, firstly, you need to monitor: Is it working? Is it actually delivering on what was hoped and the objective? If it’s doing very well, then we maybe need to do more.

The other issue that we have to keep our minds very open to is new developments, innovation coming down the track. There are innovations in terms of emissions reduction, removals, using new technologies, using new methodologies – for example, in the whole thing of renewable electricity, electric cars, how all of that will work. There is a very large amount of innovation going on in that space.

So we need to be very aware and sensitive to that and be able to respond and benefit from innovation when it comes down the track. That’s why the climate action plan would be an annual process to be able to respond and be flexible to the knowledge we’ve gained and the opportunities that are coming on stream.

Donnelly on Ireland’s latest climate performance

Next month, the Climate Change Advisory Council will publish the last edition of its annual review under the old, pre-carbon budgets format. Donnelly previews how the report will benchmark 2020 performance against the legally set target of a 51 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions between 2018 and 2030, which translates into a crude average of 7 per cent each year.

“I don’t think it’s any secret to say that, notwithstanding the pandemic and all of the restrictions and limitations, for example, on transport and other activities in the country, we did not achieve a 7 per cent reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions last year, which points to the fact that we will have a serious challenge adhering to the budgets.

“It’s not going to be easy. It will have an impact on all sectors, that’s for sure. And it will be an expensive and serious challenge for the country to achieve the kind of ambition that’s been set in the legislation.

“On the other hand, you have to balance that with the alternative. The alternative – doing nothing – is not an option. We’re starting now to see the very real implications of climate change. We’re starting now to put numbers on the cost of these implications. The costs are mounting by the day, putting into perspective what it will cost us in order to take the action as a preventative rather than a curative after the fact.

“So yes, we are entering into a challenging era. It is a time when all sectors will be affected by this and will have a role to play. Government has a key role, of course, because we need a policy framework that will be the right framework. We will need to have financial incentives that will work and move us in the right direction. We need the policy system to provide choices and options.

“And then ultimately, it will be for industry and individuals to make the right choice and to follow through on that.”

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There the circle closes – or two concentric circles, to be more precise. Every year, the Climate Change Advisory Council and the government will go back and forth to assess progress against the Climate Action Plan, and update it as needed. 

They will do this with an eye to the five-year carbon budget and remaining within its constraint, then updating that overall ceiling itself if needed for the next five-year cycle. Obviously, any bursting of the banks between now and 2025 would mean a stricter budget for the next period to 2030, with steeper cuts and more drastic actions having to be added annually to future Climate Action Plans.

Marie Donnelly: “Know your number. Do a small audit internally. What are your emissions?”. Photo: Thomas Hubert

From the point of view of an individual business, or as a family simply trying to choose their next car, this can all seem daunting. To finish the interview, I ask Donnelly how business owners can prepare for the overwhelming deluge of information that will inevitably accompany the publication of her first carbon budget.

She acknowledges that the answer would be different for a large company with a dedicated sustainability manager or for an SME, but she adds:

“There is one action that everybody can take and that is: Know your number. Do a small audit internally. What are your emissions? Your emissions are probably coming from energy – if you’re in industry, most probably. It can be some other areas as well. 

“But let’s look at the energy side of it. In energy, you have three areas where you have emissions: You have electricity, of course; you have transport; and you have heat in its various forms. So if you could at least just calculate, try and get apples and oranges into, let’s say, kilowatt-hours. You have a very simple converter from kilowatt-hours into CO2 emissions. It doesn’t have to be accurate to the last decimal place.

“A calculation – what is your number – is the starting point for everybody. Then you have something that you can work against. Then you can say: ‘Well, I didn’t realise that my transport was actually as high as this. What can I do about it? I didn’t realise that my heat was as high as this. What can I do about it?’ 

“So I think rather than saying, ‘Oh, I must be sustainable, and I must do all of these things…’, very simply, just know your number. And then break it down into bite-sized pieces.”

Further reading

The climate change business portal 


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