A wide range of analysts around the banking and investment community are queuing up with dire forecasts of an impending global recession. To be completely transparent, all of the major indicators are consistent with a recessionary setting. The US yield curve is heavily inverted – and its inversion has been protracted – pointing to a more long-lasting recession. US PMI and ISM indicators are falling like a stone, and forward-looking order books are also showing signs of impending weakness. Retailers have reported a problem with growing inventories, which is likely a hangover from last year when they were worried about…

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