Colm McCarthy

We like to think neutrality keeps costs down and choices simple. In a Europe that’s rearming at speed, that assumption is starting to look expensive.

Ireland’s aversion to charging motorists has turned congestion into a policy choice. Roads, like water, are scarce — and refusing to price them simply spreads the costs more widely and inefficiently.

From the Bertiebowl to deferred motorways, crises have taught the same lesson repeatedly: when budgets tighten, capital is cut first — and when money flows again, oversight is quietly abandoned.

From the Children’s Hospital overshoot to the revival of rail schemes without credible studies, Ireland risks repeating past mistakes as independent evaluation fades and political urgency takes precedence over economic discipline.

Despite strong warnings from the Central Bank, the ESRI and the Fiscal Advisory Council, the government looks set to blow past its own spending rules. Colm McCarthy warns that Ireland risks repeating old mistakes.

Decades in the making, the airport’s second runway was delivered on time and on budget — only to be hobbled by passenger caps and night-flight limits. Ireland now faces calls for bigger projects like MetroLink without the same scrutiny. Why build it, if we won’t plan to use it?

Behind the battle over a new underground lies Dublin’s real transport dilemma: entrenched car dependency, generous parking perks, and resistance to congestion charges. The MetroLink risks distracting from reforms that could reshape the city sooner.

The State’s commitment to fund Metrolink before its cost is known illustrates the abandonment of project selection on the basis of their business case.

Warnings about unsustainable spending have gone unheeded as government promises mount, from regional wish lists to defence upgrades. Neutrality has quietly delivered one of Ireland’s greatest fiscal dividends, and abandoning it could cost more than any infrastructure project ever has.

Ireland risks another cycle of capital cuts and fiscal crises unless early corrective action is taken and spending discipline restored.