Colm McCarthy

If things go pear-shaped internationally, the Government’s lack of seriousness in the last few weeks has diminished future fiscal capacity. The failure will, on past form, trigger a budget adjustment consisting of another pro-cyclical assault on the capital programme.

The best response to the worsening geopolitical outlook is a stronger state balance sheet. The government has chosen to wish it away.

We like to think neutrality keeps costs down and choices simple. In a Europe that’s rearming at speed, that assumption is starting to look expensive.

Ireland’s aversion to charging motorists has turned congestion into a policy choice. Roads, like water, are scarce — and refusing to price them simply spreads the costs more widely and inefficiently.

From the Bertiebowl to deferred motorways, crises have taught the same lesson repeatedly: when budgets tighten, capital is cut first — and when money flows again, oversight is quietly abandoned.

From the Children’s Hospital overshoot to the revival of rail schemes without credible studies, Ireland risks repeating past mistakes as independent evaluation fades and political urgency takes precedence over economic discipline.

Despite strong warnings from the Central Bank, the ESRI and the Fiscal Advisory Council, the government looks set to blow past its own spending rules. Colm McCarthy warns that Ireland risks repeating old mistakes.

Decades in the making, the airport’s second runway was delivered on time and on budget — only to be hobbled by passenger caps and night-flight limits. Ireland now faces calls for bigger projects like MetroLink without the same scrutiny. Why build it, if we won’t plan to use it?

Behind the battle over a new underground lies Dublin’s real transport dilemma: entrenched car dependency, generous parking perks, and resistance to congestion charges. The MetroLink risks distracting from reforms that could reshape the city sooner.

The State’s commitment to fund Metrolink before its cost is known illustrates the abandonment of project selection on the basis of their business case.