It’s that time of the year when investment banks, think tanks, and international organisations give their annual outlooks for the year ahead. These outlooks are strange in the respect that it is not like underlying economic trends shift because we have entered a new calendar year, but they are interesting to read in the sense that they give an idea about where consensus opinion stands, and sometimes they can bring an interesting viewpoint which an investor may have not considered. The outlooks are also noteworthy in the respect that they never mention the unknown unknowns – Covid in 2020, Russia’s…

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