Scotland are on the brink of something new. They have the chance to make history by achieving their first-ever Triple Crown in the Six Nations Championship, a feat no other Scottish side has accomplished. Recent victories against England and Wales have made the long years of struggle, the fight to avoid a wooden spoon and the humiliating defeats seem an age away. Only Ireland stand in their way.

For most of Ireland’s rugby history, they have occupied a similar position to Scotland, but the professional era has been good to Ireland and that is no coincidence. Four Six Nations Championship wins and seven European Cup titles for Irish clubs under their belt in the professional game. 

Scottish coach Gregor Townsend and his team face a daunting task ahead as they prepare to take on an Ireland squad of serial winners who have accumulated numerous championship trophies and individual medals. In contrast, Scotland has experienced limited success in international rugby. While Scotland’s confidence may be high following a strong second-half performance against France, they will be up against an Irish team with far greater experience in the business end of elite rugby.

What does the data say?

Scotland and Ireland are the top try scorers in this year’s Six Nations, with Scotland scoring 12 tries and Ireland scoring 13. One key area where Scotland has found success is from their lineout attack, with eight of their tries coming from this set-piece. This has been a traditional good source of tries for Ireland, but they have struggled in this area in their last three games. On the other hand, Ireland has been effective in their transition attack, scoring seven tries from turnovers. However, Scotland has yet to concede a transition try in this tournament, highlighting their defence’s ability to shut down this type of attack. The contrast in attacking styles between the two teams creates an intriguing matchup, with Ireland aiming to limit Scotland’s lineout platform while Scotland focuses on stopping Ireland’s transition attack.

Ireland’s first-half performances have been hugely impressive to date with them racing into commanding first half leads. Ireland's struggles in the third quarter of games will be a worry for the coaching group and players. In the quarter after half time, Ireland have found it tough and this may play into the hands of Scotland. There seems to be a lack of intensity and focus in this period which has allowed their opponents to take advantage and gain momentum. In contrast, Scotland are scoring most of their points in the second half, showing their resilience and ability to stay in the game due to their improved fitness levels required at this level. 

If Scotland can prevent Ireland from scoring early in the game and keep the scoreboard low in the first half, they will have a chance to build their momentum and put pressure on Ireland.

The longer they keep the game close, the more confident they will become, and look to avail of more opportunities late in the game. Scotland will look to tap into the emotional support from the home crowd to support their cause. 

Additionally, if Ireland can accelerate the scoreboard, in the first half, as they have done so far in this championship, Scotland will become frustrated and try to force their attacking play, which could lead to turnovers and opportunities for Ireland to counterattack. Therefore, Scotland's ability to withstand early Irish pressure and stay within striking distance will be crucial to their chances of securing a win.

Scotland's ability to score two thirds of their tries within the first three phases of attack has been one of their major strengths in this year's championship. This quick and efficient style of attack has caused problems for England and France, and Scotland will look to continue this trend against Ireland. However, Ireland's attacking strategy, which looks to wear down teams with their energy-sapping attack, will pose a challenge for Scotland’s defence. Ireland will focus on being solid in defence for the first three phases and force Scotland to defend for long periods, just as they did against Italy and France. This battle for control in the early stages of the game will be crucial in determining the outcome of the match.

Scotland has had the best lineout success rate in the championship with a 94 per cent success rate compared to Ireland's 89 per cent. This could prove to be a key area for Scotland as they look to maintain their possession and put pressure on Ireland. Additionally, Scotland's tackling success rate is higher than Ireland's and they have missed fewer tackles, which bodes well for their defensive capabilities, while Ireland have missed a staggering 79 tackles. Scotland will have to repeat these metrics if Scotland can replicate their successful lineout and tackling performance and continue their efficient attacking style. 

Sloppy Scotland

However, while Scotland shows some positive metrics within the game data, the data also illustrates how they have some major flaws in their game. They also top the charts with the highest turnover errors, kicking errors and have a goal-kicking success rate of just 73 per cent. A repeat of these errors will gift Ireland the game.

A mercurial talent with flaws

Finn Russell, Scotland's fly-half, is a daring player who is not afraid to take risks on the field. His creativity and vision make him a constant threat to any opposition defence. With exceptional game-reading abilities, he creates opportunities for his teammates and executes them with precision. However, his unpredictability can sometimes be a double-edged sword. Overplaying his hand can lead to errors, turnovers and missed tackles. It's vital for Scotland to find a balance that allows Russell to play his natural game while maintaining discipline and structure.

Despite these potential drawbacks, Russell's presence on the field will be a significant factor in Scotland's game plan against Ireland. His ability to read and exploit gaps in the opposition defence, coupled with his kicking game and offloading skills, gives Scotland several attacking options. If the team can provide Russell with the right support and structure, he has the potential to be the match-winner, but also the match-loser. 

The Kicking Threat

Scotland's kicking threat, led by Russell, is another key component of their attacking strategy that could cause problems for Ireland on Sunday. Ireland typically defends with a 13/2 system, which features twin full-backs in the backfield. However, this could play into Scotland's hands, as Russell is skilled at finding chip space between the two Irish backfield players and behind the front-line defence.

This creates a dilemma for Ireland's backfield players, particularly full-back Hugo Keenan, who must decide whether to stay narrow and try to cover the chip space, or remain wider and risk leaving space for Scotland's wingers to exploit. Russell's ability to disguise his kicks adds another layer of complexity to this threat, making it even more difficult for Ireland's defenders to predict and react to his moves. If Scotland can successfully use their kicking game to keep Ireland's defence guessing and creating space for their wingers, they could put themselves in a strong position to score points and win the game.

However, Ireland will undoubtedly be aware of this threat and will have studied Scotland's tactics carefully in preparation for the match. The Irish defence may opt to adjust their strategy and try to limit Russell's kicking opportunities, while also remaining alert to the possibility of his kick passes.

Overall, Scotland's kicking threat is just one aspect of their attacking game, but it could be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the match against Ireland. If they can execute their kicks with precision and continue to surprise the Irish defence.

To have and to hold

Scotland's holding attack has been a crucial component of their success in the Six Nations championship. The combination of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones in the centres has been particularly impressive, with both players possessing the ability to hold the defence narrow and create gaps for their teammates to exploit.

Jones, in particular, has been a standout performer, using his exceptional overs to under-running lines to great effect. He has been the beneficiary of Tuipulotu's superb passing skills that have allowed him to make several line breaks in the tournament so far. Against Ireland, Scotland will look to use their holding attack to put pressure on the Irish defence, especially out in the wider parts of the field. Ireland's weakness in this area has been well documented, with players like Hansen and Lowe struggling in defence when they have multiple decisions to make out in the wider channels.

If Scotland can successfully narrow up the Irish midfield, they will be able to get fly-half Finn Russell wider to pick off his wide passing game or even his kick pass game. This multi-layered attack strategy will keep the Irish defence guessing and creating opportunities for Scotland to score points. However, Ireland will undoubtedly have studied Scotland's holding attack and will be prepared to counter it. The return of Garry Ringrose to the Irish team will provide them with more defensive solidity in the midfield and could help to neutralise Scotland's attacking threat.

The short side

Scotland's short-side attack has emerged as a key weapon in their attacking arsenal. The team has been able to exploit this strategy to great effect in recent matches, causing problems for top-tier teams like England and France. This approach involves quickly shifting the ball to the side of the field that has fewer defenders, usually after a ruck has formed.

The success of this strategy relies on the ability to spot opportunities when the opposition's numbering is off. In other words, when the defending team has not allocated enough defenders to the short side of the ruck. Scotland's fly half, Finn Russell has been particularly effective at identifying these situations and exploiting them.

Against Ireland, Scotland will once again look to test the Irish defence by utilising their short-side attack pattern. If Ireland fails to defend both sides of the ruck effectively, Scotland will be well-positioned to take advantage of the space on the short side of the field. With a quick transfer of the ball, Scotland's players can create overlaps and put their wingers in good positions to score.

Of course, this strategy is not foolproof, and it requires a lot of precision and timing to execute effectively. They must be able to recognise the opportunities when they arise and quickly move the ball to the right place on the field. Additionally, the short-side attack must be used in conjunction with other strategies to keep the opposition guessing and prevent them from focusing solely on defending the short side. Overall, the short-side attack is just one tool in Scotland's tactical arsenal.

One of the most remarkable aspects of Scotland's recent performances has been their ability to adapt their game plan to exploit their opponent's weaknesses and play to their strengths, with a strategic plan in place that can take advantage of Irish vulnerabilities. However, Scotland has also had some struggles, particularly with mental toughness in key moments of the game like the first 20-minutes against France.

Stuart Hogg, in particular, has been known to make some questionable decisions and skill executions in past matches against Ireland. To help address these issues, Scotland has enlisted the services of a mental skills coach, Aaron Walsh.

Walsh, a New Zealander, has been working with the team to build mental resilience and prepare them for the immense pressure they will face on the field. For Scotland to win, they must be mentally prepared to compete at the highest level and stay focused throughout the game, no matter the score line. Players like Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg, who are key to the team's success, must maintain their composure and eliminate unforced errors while capitalising on their opportunities. If they can achieve this, Scotland will put in place steps required that have been missing in previous years.

If Scotland manages to win against Ireland, it would be a significant achievement for their rugby team and could mark the beginning of a new era, re-establishing them as a force on the international stage. Not only would it also set them up for a shot at the Championship with a final day home match against Italy but a win could also have positive implications for Scotland's World Cup preparations, particularly as they will be facing Ireland again in their final pool game.

While some Irish supporters and commentators may baulk at the idea of a Scottish win, it's a possibility. Ireland possess far superior players in most positions and are a team that has passed every task handed to them over the last 12 months, Scotland will have to play well above themselves to get over the line. One of the things that will be established on Sunday is if this Scotland side is capable of doing that. If they do play above themselves, they might be celebrating the dawn of a new era. If they don’t, they will probably have recorded their 20th defeat to an Irish side that have dominated them since the turn of the century.