In 2021, I made the rather out-of-sample prediction that corporation taxes would not fall, as modelled by just about everyone, but rise, and rise rapidly, expanding the public’s expectations and forcing the government into fiscally unsustainable spending. Thomas’s parts 1 and 2 of this series show the mechanics of why, and Brad Setser’s piece gives its international context and the policy ramifications, particularly the ICT/Pharma distinction that many on this island miss. In this column, riffing on their contributions, I’m going to look at the macroeconomic implications of tying our fiscal future to ever-greater corporate taxation windfalls. The business model…
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