Voices
Immigration is going to be one of the hot political issues of 2024 in Ireland and beyond. In Ireland, the number of migrants entering the country in the year between April 2022 and April 2023 stood at 141,600, an increase of 31 per cent on the previous year according to the ESRI. In the same period, 64,000 people left Ireland, a 14 per cent increase in emigration.
Meanwhile, a total of 13,651 applications for international protection were made in 2022, a 415 per cent increase from 2021 and the highest number of asylum applications on record in Ireland. The top three countries of origin were Georgia, Algeria and Somalia.
How does climate change cause migration? Somalia merits a closer look.
More than one million Somalis were displaced by drought in 2022. The following year, the UN reported that a quarter of Somalia’s population were at risk of “crisis-level hunger or worse” due to drought and floods amplified by climate change. The changing climate made drought in the Horn of Africa at least one hundred times more likely, according to the World Meteorological Office. Most of the Somalis moved not to Europe or Ireland but to other parts of Somalia.
Somalia is the world’s most climate-vulnerable country, according to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative’s ranking, yet it hosts approximately 3 million humanitarian migrants. Across the world, refugees and others with protection needs are disproportionately hosted by countries themselves highly vulnerable to climate change. When the options at home are used up and people are really desperate, they turn to people smugglers and take out loans to send family members abroad in search of hope. Some of these people end up in Ireland seeking asylum.
Climate change is linked to migration
During the devastating Pakistan floods of 2022, an estimated eight million people were displaced and the floods decimated the economy, causing approximately $30 billion in damage. In the immediate response to the catastrophe, which left up to 12 per cent of the country under water, many people moved internally.
But as the economic collapse caused by the floods hit home and unemployment rose, thousands of Pakistanis migrated to Europe. At least 350 Pakistanis were on board a trawler which sank off the Greek coast last June, all in search of a better life and the prospect of finding work.
Climate change is a threat multiplier when it comes to migration. In the case of Pakistan, extreme weather plus economic collapse combined to force people to move. Last month, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention linked the worst outbreak of cholera in three years in the Democratic Republic of Congo and southern Africa to climate change. Flooding caused by climate change is increasing the risk of cholera there faster than in the rest of the world, making disease another contributory factor in internal migration and displacement.
In the US, census data reveals that 3.2 million adults were displaced or evacuated due to natural disasters in 2022. Half a million of them had not returned home by the beginning of 2023. Whether it is in the US, Europe or Australia, people in the developed world are being forced to move as climate impacts accelerate.
Ireland can expect internal movement of people
The World Bank estimates that up to 216 million people could be forced to move within their own country by 2050, as water becomes scarcer and agricultural livelihoods are threatened. However, with more ambitious climate policies and investment aimed at driving down emissions quickly, this could drop to 44 million.
In Europe, agricultural land will gain or lose value as the impact of climate change accelerates and some areas become hotter and others drier or wetter. The European Environment Agency predicts that Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, and the UK will benefit slightly, while Spain, Greece, and Italy will suffer and their ability to grow food and generate revenue will diminish.
Italy is predicted to suffer most, losing around €100 billion or 60 per cent of farmland value by 2100. This means that the future could be one of migration within Europe mainly from countries experiencing extreme heat and drought in the south to the more temperate climes in the north including Ireland.
Even in Ireland, we can expect internal movement of people, as some parts of Ireland, especially the north west, will be negatively impacted by wetter weather, making farming more challenging. Note the lack of data on the map for Donegal and the border counties.
Migration a coping response to climate change
People displaced by climate change are not classified as refugees. The definition of a refugee is a person fleeing persecution on one of five grounds: race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership of a particular social group. Climate or environmental factors are not cited as a reason and the international community is reluctant to redefine what a refugee is in case it gets weakened in any future negotiations.
Instead, we talk about climate-displaced people who are protected by humanitarian and human rights law. In some instances, special provision has been made to recognise a wider set of reasons for fleeing persecution. For example, in 2010 and 2011, Kenya and Ethiopia gave Somalis fleeing famine and drought protection under the Organisation for African Unity Convention’s expanded definition of refugee.
It includes “people fleeing serious disturbances to public order,” which can be interpreted to include environmental degradation and climate events. Migration is also an adaptation or coping response to climate change. It’s a recognised strategy for dealing with climate impacts that make some parts of the world uninhabitable. And yet, as we continue to drag our heels on reducing carbon emissions, the need for coping strategies like migration increases.
Many businesses are suffering from staff shortages
So, will migration from Europe and the rest of the world be a blessing or a curse for Ireland? Most of what we hear about immigration presents it as a problem. There are suggestions that we don’t have enough houses or services to cater for refugees and asylum seekers in a way that upholds their human rights. Some claim that Ireland is at capacity and that host communities are suffering as a result. Yet at the same time, we are at full employment and many businesses are constrained by staff shortages.
Over the past 10 years, there has been an 86 per cent increase in the number of non-Irish people employed in the Irish economy. According to the CSO, the sectors most dependent on immigrant labour are industry (14 per cent), health (13.4 per cent) and retail and wholesale (12.4 per cent).
A recent report by the ESRI shows that we need thousands more workers in the construction sector to deliver on housing needs and to accelerate the delivery of the National Development Plan. Without this plan, we can’t create the sustainable, low-carbon infrastructure needed to achieve our climate targets.
At present, we don’t have the workers we need to implement the plan, so there will have to be immigration. Developing the skills needed for a low-carbon sustainable economy means we will need diverse competencies across a range of jobs, from minimum-wage roles to professionals.
Bringing in expertise from countries that have lived experience of climate impacts or are already leaders in climate responses, like offshore energy or district heating, could accelerate our transition. More diversity in companies has been shown to drive creativity and profitability. We will also need people to work in service stations, care homes, cafés and warehouses so less skilled labour is also a critical resource.
Climate change is destabilising the world as temperatures rise, extreme weather becomes the norm and the sea level rises. The first thing we need to do is to stop causing the problem by moving quickly away from fossil fuels. This will make more of our planet inhabitable allowing people to stay in their home countries.
The second thing we must do is adapt to the new normal. Part of that will be accepting migration as a climate adaptation strategy and integrating that into our development. Housing, health and education should value immigration and see it as a resource with which to build a sustainable and inclusive society.
