While recent discussions have focused on how Sinn Féin has had a bad two months, the party has more accurately had a bad two years – certainly, in terms of party support. As the first chart shows, party support for Sinn Féin rose from 24.5 per cent in the last general election up to 36 per cent by late October 2022 and has since then fallen sharply to 19 per cent. How did this happen and where did these voters go? One thing to highlight is that this specific pattern, in which the opposition rises in the mid-electoral cycle and…
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