When the Programme for Government is finally negotiated the time horizon for fiscal projections will be five years, an EU requirement. The document needs to minimise risks to fiscal sustainability and a mid-course correction. There are plenty looming. The report of the Fiscal Advisory Council warns that an enduring boom in corporate tax revenues is unlikely. US domestic policy eschews worldwide aggregation for tax purposes of the profits of American companies and Trump could seek a change in Congress. There are other risks, including the protectionist drift in US policy already evident under a Democratic president. The French and German…

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