In recent months, EUR/USD has risen from levels of around 1.08 (at the beginning of May) to current levels just below 1.20. This is a large and significant move within the space of just a few months. To put the current move into context, EUR/USD spent most of the last two years in a tight trading range, between 1.06 and 1.14. The EUR/USD up move is mainly a reflection of USD weakness rather than EUR strength. Trade-weighted USD exchange rates have declined by around 5 per cent since early June, and there is the prospect of further declines for the…

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