In recent months, the supply of crude oil and refined products has been constrained by several factors, which have hit the market simultaneously. European refining margins hit a record $50 (€45) per barrel (pb) over the summer, and diesel refining margins rose to $100pb, with the total cost of diesel hitting a record $200pb. These margins are set to remain at extremely high levels because there is a global shortfall of around 10% of normal refining capacity. This lack of refining capacity reflects several issues. First, Middle Eastern refining runs are running around 25% below their pre-February 2026 levels because…

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