On Monday afternoon Arlene Foster will formally resign as Northern Ireland’s first minister. She is 50. She is likely to be a baroness in the House of Lords before the year is out. Her chastening experiences on the political stage and in the social media jungle will give her new opportunities on the international conference circuit. Like Peter Robinson before her, she will retain her security detail.

Foster’s forced exit signals a whole new dynamic in Northern Ireland and DUP politics. Those who fired the stones have triumphed.  

They are now entering the glasshouse where those stones will have to be decommissioned. And they are quickly beginning to realise that the glasshouse is about to become a hothouse.

The key figures are 56-year-old Edwin Poots, the new DUP leader, an Assembly member for the Lagan Valley constituency who has chosen to stay in his position as Agriculture Minister; 39-year-old Paul Givan, the incoming First Minister, also an Assembly member for Lagan Valley; 46-year-old Paul Frew, the new Economy Minister and an Assembly member for the North Antrim Constituency since 2010 and 54-year-old Ian Paisley junior, a Westminster MP for that North Antrim constituency since 2010, who served for 12 years in the Assembly before then.

64-year-old Jim Wells, an Assembly member for South Down, also deserves to be included in the group. Since the party whip was withdrawn from him two years ago, Wells has been prominent among the rock carriers outside the glasshouse.  

To date there has been no public signal that he is to be formally acknowledged for his contribution to regime change.

The God squad

In a way they look like The God Squad. They remind me of the men in dark suits and white shirts from Salt Lake City who used to knock on the door of our flat on Dublin’s North Circular Road and waken us on Saturday mornings in 1976. But in this instance the individuals are not Mormons, they are members of the Free Presbyterian Church, founded by Rev Ian Paisley in 1951.

They will not shy away from talking publicly about their faith and their beliefs. They will not seek to revive the Save Ulster from Sodomy campaign of 1977 that sought to prevent the decriminalisation of homosexuality in Northern Ireland.  

Nor will not attempt to reverse provisions on same sex marriage.  

But they are profoundly opposed to elements of the abortion regulations for Northern Ireland, decided by the Westminster parliament but not yet enacted by the Stormont Assembly. It adds to their moral discomfort that the House of Commons provisions are in some respects more liberal than the provisions passed into law by Dail Eireann on foot of the May 2018 Referendum on the Eighth Amendment.

In ousting Arlene Foster and the DUP pragmatists, the new crew has triumphed against the odds.  

More than any other unionist politician, Peter Robinson was the one who understood the imperfect compromises and balances that have to be struck in order to become a government party in Northern Ireland’s uniquely messy arena. 

Edwin Poots is a lot more than a farmer with a dog called Fury, named after the boxer Tyson Fury.  

He was the strategist who moved the DUP from a full-on party of protest, outside the tent to the dominant unionist voice in an uneasy relationship with Sinn Fein in a mandatory power-sharing coalition. He also knew that Ian Paisley was the only one who could lead the troops towards the shaky bridge across the river. 

After just a year as First Minister, in 2008 Ian Paisley was ‘retired from service’ and Robinson took over. In 2010 Sammy Wilson relocated to Westminster in a Hobson’s choice scenario when House of Commons/Stormont Assembly double jobbing became impossible. In 2016 Wilson didn’t figure as Robinson’s DUP leadership was passed on to Arlene Foster.

In both cases, regime change happened through political osmosis. There was no blood on the carpet.  

Ousted: Arlene Foster Pic: Eamonn Farrell/RollingNews.ie

Foster’s removal was completely different. She was taken out by the roots – literally from the ground up. First by aerating the rumblings within hard-line voters in some constituencies and then by working up numbers among the party’s 28 Assembly members.      

Peter Robinson has aired some of his views on recent events in his Belfast Newsletter columns. He suggested the decision by Edwin Poots to ‘snub’ the defeated candidate Jeffrey Donaldson after his 19-17 victory in the DUP leadership contest was ‘poor form’.

He warned that the eagerness of some of the party to see Arlene Foster depart might leave her looking as “roadkill” after the ‘humiliation of the move against her.

The coup was a masterclass in political ruthlessness. By the time the beneficiaries emerged from the wings the deed was done.  

But now comes the hard part. They have worked their way to the bridge of the good ship DUP. But there are icebergs up ahead. Could they be in charge of The Titanic?

Driving from the passenger seat

Edwin Poots is a lot more than a farmer with a dog called Fury, named after the boxer Tyson Fury.  

In February he had surgery to successfully deal with a kidney cancer condition.  He had reluctantly stepped aside from his role as Agriculture Minister to facilitate his health challenge.  In the eyes of the party leadership, Poots’ temporary replacement, 35-year-old Gordon Lyons, seemed a good fit in the younger model role.

Five weeks after his operation, Poots was back at his desk with new perspectives on survival, political survival included.

In some respects Poots decision to pass on the First Minister role is extraordinary. Not a back seat driver but a passenger seat driver. It is likely to mean that his face time with the British Prime Minister will be limited as busy Boris is used to dealing with devolved first ministers rather than party leaders. But in the numbers game where Poots saw off Jeffrey Donaldson by a 19-17 margin, the hint of a possible offer of the top Stormont job might have helped his manoeuvrings.

Paul Givan, Poots selection as First Minister, is sharp.  

Sharp dresser. Sharp tongue. Sharp mind. His father, a retired prison officer, has publicly wondered if the First Minister responsibilities are coming to him too early.  

He earned notoriety in the febrile days before Christmas in 2016. The revelations about the Renewable Heat Incentive debacle were flowing thick and fast and Arlene Foster and the DUP were in the firing line. Sinn Fein, their partners in government, were doing what they often do well – outrage.  

Givan was the Communities Minister, who, unknown to his beleaguered boss, Arlene Foster, decided to end a £55,000 scheme, giving Gaeltacht grants to Irish language students from disadvantaged backgrounds.

It was the final straw for the Shinners. Martin McGuinness was in a London taxi, making his way to the airport following a medical consultation about his cancer condition when the Sinn Fein statement was issued signalling the game was up for power-sharing.   

Givan has learned from that debacle and the three years of suspended power-sharing that flowed from it. He is aware that more than any of the new regime, he was associated with the last disaster.  

As the youngest and most prominent member, he will know the likely consequences of a second screw-up.

Paul Frew, the Economy Minister, is likely to be the first to experience the pressures of the battlefield.  He will have much of the hands-on responsibilities for dealing with the consequences of the Brexit policy his party championed and the Northern Ireland protocol that flowed from it.

In a BBC Northern Ireland interview less than 24 hours after his appointment, Frew was explaining why it is intolerable that the Northern Ireland protocol remains. He said he would like to see the EU take a much more pragmatic approach but ‘unfortunately the EU and pragmatism doesn’t really go together and never really have.’  An unusual take on the history of the European Union.

Invest Northern Ireland, the north of the border job-creating version of the IDA, liaises with the new Economy minister.  Since the Brexit agreement, despite the pandemic climate, it has been quietly pushing Northern Ireland’s unique position within the UK as the only region that sell its goods into EU and UK markets.

When asked about this Minister Frew responded that Invest NI should use every tool in its toolbox to promote investment in Northern Ireland.

Paisley the maverick

Ian Paisley junior is the fourth amigo. He is different to his father but in his case, it would be wrong to file him under the Pat Rabbitte observation that talent sometimes skips a generation.  

Junior is an able maverick. He saw off the noise over a Westminster inquiry into a Maldives family holiday. That followed on a different rumpus about two trips to Sri Lanka which resulted in his suspension from the House of Commons for 30 sitting days.

A seminal phase in his political life was the eight-month period when he was junior minister at Stormont while his then 81-year-old father was First Minister. One of the high points then was when the Paisley/McGuinness Chuckle Brothers pairing was feted in Washington and New York as a Disneyland-style miracle.

Junior was an attentive son on that US trip and has always harboured the view that a faction within the DUP, nobody else, prematurely ended his father’s political career.  

Both Peter Robinson and Arlene Foster deliberately steered clear of Nolan

His energy and promptings featured in the DUP churn of recent weeks.  He will continue to be an influence but his place of work is Westminster, not Stormont. As the Assembly adjusts and wobbles, he will be elsewhere and his next scheduled date with the voting public is well beyond the scheduled Assembly elections in May 2022.

The ringmaster

The best place to monitor how the God Squad fares is not the Stormont Assembly or the House of Commons.  Showtime will be provided by the BBC and the ringmaster will be broadcaster, Stephen Nolan.

It’s possible that Nolan is given the most scope of any presenter in BBC’s array of regional and national outlets. He has a radio programme five mornings per week on BBC Northern Ireland and high-profile television slots on the service as well. He presents a late night two to three hour programme on BBC’s national 5 Live service, two and sometimes three nights per week.  

Year after year he is given the slots because, in his unique style, he delivers the audience numbers and the reaction.

It’s a mix of show biz, Shock Jock and hard-edge journalism. An unforgettable episode in the Renewable Heat Incentive saga had a television sequence with a preacher giving politician Jonathan Bell the once-over as he prepared for a confessional interview to Nolan.  

It was beyond Alan Partridge or even Monty Python. But it was for real. And it had impact.

Sometimes Nolan’s more reflective work takes place for the national outlet, Five Live. He recently devoted much a programme to euthanasia when interviewee after interviewee shared their raw, intimate truths.  As often happens, he aired a compressed version of the ‘mainland’ output on his Northern Ireland show a few days later.

Both Peter Robinson and Arlene Foster deliberately steered clear of Nolan.  But that didn’t stop coverage of DUP related issues. Ian Paisley junior is a regular guest as are fellow Westminster MP’s Sammy Wilson and Jeffrey Donaldson. But some of the most telling contributions are made by the leader and sole Assembly representative of the Traditional Unionist Voice party, Jim Allister and Jim Wells, the whipless DUP Assembly member for South Down.

Barrister Allister thrives on airwaves access just as he commands attention when he gets to his feet in the Assembly chamber.

For many months Stephen Nolan’s activities have challenged the DUP’s best efforts to portray a calm, united image. He had impeccable sources about the internal rumblings as Arlene Foster’s undoing was engineered and set in train.  

Overtures seeking a meeting from the Dublin-based Sinn Fein president, Mary Lou Mc Donald usually got a cool reception from Arlene.

In a remarkable volte-face the DUP new brooms quickly made themselves available for Get to Know You, calm interviews with the broadcaster and his sizable audience.

It’s new territory for DUP leadership. But it also new for Nolan.

Very often he relies on a strong element of high-octane Punch and Judy knockabout to set the pulses racing and keep the audience engaged.  

Nolan’s running order frequently includes issues such as the ability to access abortion services, the rights of the LGBTQ communities, the pay and conditions of nurses, the plight of disgruntled publicans, restaurant owners and taxi drivers during the pandemic, sharing power with Sinn Fein after hordes of its supporters attending Bobby Storey’s funeral and the right to protest over the Northern Ireland protocol.

Nolan’s interactions with the DUP under new management will publicly test interviewer as well as interviewee.

Since Edwin Poots won the DUP leadership contest, even though he has not formally taken over, he has met Mary Lou Mc Donald three times.  

And then there is the unique political relationship at the heart of power-sharing, the DUP and Sinn Fein. When Arlene Foster was in charge, she preferred to conduct her business, often difficult, with Sinn Fein’s Vice President, Michelle O’ Neill. Overtures seeking a meeting from the Dublin-based Sinn Fein president, Mary Lou Mc Donald usually got a cool reception from Arlene.

Since Edwin Poots won the DUP leadership contest, even though he has not formally taken over, he has met Mary Lou Mc Donald three times.  

His consistent message to her is that he is a pragmatist, he was involved in negotiations with Sinn Fein before and his form is to deliver on what he has promised. Mary Lou listened and took note. But from meeting number two on she made it plain that she is not a fan of duck, more ducking but no dinner.

One matter, not insignificant but not immediately vital, is Irish language legislation. Unless promised Irish language legislation is passed by the Assembly before the July recess, it will not successfully complete its journey through the procedural mechanics this side of the May 2022 elections.  

Edwin Poots and Mary Lou Mc Donald both know this.  Poots is most unlikely to do what is required by the Irish language lobby before the July deadline.  He will promise Mary Lou Mc Donald that the matter will be revisited on the far side of an election.  

Is she likely to let him away with that post-dated cheque and risk the wrath of a section of her party’s support base?  Probably yes.  It is not an issue on which to collapse power-sharing.  She and her party could do so by refusing to support the nomination of Paul Given as First Minister after Arlene Foster resigns next week.  That could risk her been seen as using a chainsaw to untie a shoelace.

But there are much bigger games underway.  The British government is trying to renege on some of the consequences that flow from the Northern Ireland protocol it agreed as part of its Brexit deal.  

The British representative who negotiated that agreement, David Frost, is now determined to distance himself from it.  EU member states, led by France, are indignant with rage about the British behaviour and are encouraging the EU’s chief negotiator, Maros Sefcovic, to see and raise Lord Frost’s bluster at the poker table.

Brexit creationism

In Northern Ireland the marching season is approaching. Like Arlene Foster before him, the incoming party leader, Edwin Poots will not acknowledge any link between the Brexit Agreement they championed and the controversial Northern Ireland protocol, now growing in significance.

The next Assembly election is at most ten months away. If the DUP is to lose middle-ground voters to the Ulster Unionists, Alliance and others, could one option be to grow support in loyalist communities with a poor track record of voting?  

Sinn Fein wants to be seen as firm but not stupid.  In that next Assembly election, Sinn Fein could become Northern Ireland’s largest party for the first time. South of the border, the housing crisis is the problem that keeps on giving.  Sinn Fein has a realistic chance of becoming at least a junior partner in government after the next Dail elections.

In some European capitals and in sections of the European Commission Micheál Martin’s ‘measured’ concerns about the Northern Ireland protocol are noted. Yes, that is in entirely in keeping with his modus operandi.  But could it also have another element? If Sinn Fein could be accused of a fondness for destruction and chaos, who benefits?  

Edwin Poots has surprisingly made it to centre stage, Micheál Martin is well into his term there, Mary Lou is almost in touching distance.  

All three know survival requires avoiding the landmines.  

We will return to the Sinn Fein story soon.