As the home of some of the world’s great food ingredients businesses, it is not surprising that many in the Irish food industry view 2022 with trepidation. The gap between consumer behaviour and consumer studies has never been so wide: The move away from plastics reversed completely during the pandemic; sustainability became a poor relation to safety; tracking food miles at the supermarket was replaced by having food delivered by motorbike or van; concerns about antimicrobial soaps effects on antibiotic resistance drowned in the desire to be safe; and food waste concerns were forgotten in the rush to make sure to have enough in the house.

As the pandemic wanes, the challenges of reconciling the food industry and farming with consumer demands, topped off with continuing supply chain disruptions, have never been more complex. 

So what paths are hot for Irish food players looking to get control of their future this year? And, just as importantly – what’s not? Here’s a take on six trendy food topics in food, followed by a possible spoiler.

The moment of truth for alternative proteins

Literally promising to save the planet, generating more column inches and hype than any other food technology, yet delivering remarkably little so far, lab meats and alternative milks lead the pack for internal contradictions.

The idea looks great: figure out how to produce “meat” at factory levels, animal proteins without the involvement of animals! What could go wrong? I wrote about many of the possible limitations of cellular meats grown on petri dishes three years ago, but a recent review by Joe Fassler in the American food publication The Counter illustrates even more clearly the inconvenient truth that supplying just 10 per cent of the world’s meat production will require 4,000 factories, at a cost of almost $500 million each, or $2 trillion. 

The outlook for plant-based alternatives to milk and eggs is more promising. A report in the UK showed a doubling in the consumption of plant-based milks, sausages, and burgers over the past decade. It was carried out by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with the University of Oxford.

Textured and processed vegetable proteins have shown significant progress, with commercial products competing for shelf space with conventional meats, milk, and eggs. The most visible examples of this success are probably the “milk” category where oat, rice, soy and almond alternatives have taken market share. Despite complaints from the dairy industry about the use of the word “milk” to describe products that perhaps are more accurately termed juices, they are still widely being accepted by consumers. Their appearance in coffee shops as a standard item on the menu shows their progress into the mainstream.

Replacing liquid eggs with vegetable options also appears to be an easy substitution for both consumers and the foodservice industry. 

A viable replacement for meat is seen as the holy grail by many in the food business. The challenge is that cellular meats are extremely sensitive systems: It is essential to avoid bacteria, toxins and viruses, because any infection will take down the entire production system. This requires very tight controls, including high levels of antimicrobials (mainly antibiotics), biosecurity with piped-in oxygen, and class-6 clean rooms.

The result is that the costs of production are astronomical: The average quarter pounder burger is projected to cost $100 in a restaurant, while another report suggests that costs will range from 100 to 10,000 times the cost of producing conventional meat. Further, successful cell cultivation systems are disproportionately reliant on fetal bovine serum, harvested at slaughterhouses from calf fetuses, which will not appeal to either vegetarians or consumers who want slaughter-free meat.

Throw in the use of growth hormones, expensive amino acids, and antibiotics – all red flags to many consumers – and “cellular” or “lab-grown” meats are going to have trouble becoming mainstream. 

Big food is betting big on plants, with UK grocers announcing the ratio of plant to animal protein sales, and new investments announced every day. Yet even plant-based meat replacements (Impossible Burger, Beyond Meat, McPlant) face challenges. Some reports indicate that plant-based meats are not necessarily better for the planet, and the level of food additives currently needed to achieve similar consumer acceptance level (particularly in terms of flavours and mouthfeel) is substantial. Replacing animal proteins with heavily processed alternatives will not necessarily be seen as an improvement from either a health or an ecological point of view. 

An emerging possibility is yeast fermentation to produce animal protein analogues. Perfect Day has raised $350 million since participating in Sean O’Sullivan’s RebelBio Accelerator in Cork. The company produce analogues of milk proteins through yeast fermentation, at a cost that seems to be at parity with those derived from cow’s milk.

Such proteins have a home in sports nutrition, infant formula, and dietary drinks for the elderly, so the promise is considerable. Indeed, if their costs drop further, then it is likely that such proteins may become the mainstream in such markets. Is this a threat to Ireland’s high value-added milk fractionation business? Or an opportunity to be at the leading edge of a sector with global potential?

Irish interest in the field is growing, from startups like Strong Roots to a myriad of investments by Kerry Group. Consumers say they want alternatives that still taste like animal proteins before they will switch but achieving that with a clean label seems unlikely soon. That remains the next frontier for food scientists.

The metaverse meets the food chain

Changing the way that humans interact with their environment is the central goal of the metaverse. Microsoft created shockwaves by putting the world of extended reality (XR) on notice, when it spent USD$69 billion to buy Activision, one of the world’s leading gaming providers.

Meta/Facebook has a vision of an online world that embraces virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) delivered to customers through smart goggles and headsets. The various forms of XR, encompassing VR, AR and mixed reality (MR), are connected through artificial intelligence (AI), linked across participants by blockchain and hosted in the cloud. 

The big-five AI giants (Meta [Facebook], Alphabet [Google], Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, collectively dubbed MAMAA) are all making major investments in metaverse-enabling technologies. Each of them is looking to deliver content as they build their own metaverse.

However, the hard reality behind these exciting promises is that they rely on people being comfortable wearing the tech, and so far, humans have been remarkably resistant. Feeling self-conscious walking around in public wearing uncomfortable headsets (such as Oculus) is bad enough, but there are physical risks, from the nausea many people feel, to physical injury from the dissociation between virtual and actual space. 

Food businesses already use XR to train and teach everything from food prep to health and safety to repairs; improve the consumer experience from pre-purchase to post-consumption; and to allow greater transparency for consumers on the origins or contents of their food. Each aspect of XR (AR, MR, VR) can be revolutionary across any industry, but for food and farming, five key applications can be identified: Observation; food origin; training; efficiency and safety, and consumer experience.

Observation and visualisation

At the producer end of the food chain, XR enables farmers to augment what they see with their (human) eyes to visualise soil fertility, production quality, pests, and diseases across an entire farm, and use that data to select optimal crops and management practices.

For indoor livestock facilities, AR (monitoring ventilation, air quality and temperature), IoT (animal sensors) and AI (camera vision) can be combined to allow farmers to monitor animal health and well-being in real time. Outdoors, AR applications can track and adjust digital boundaries for grazing. 

At the other end of the food chain, XR is already affecting the consumer experience. Examples include QR menus expanding the information available to diners, such as Bareburger burger chains using Snapchat’s AR technology to show hyper-realistic food images and Hololamp using a hands-free, glasses-free AR projection machine that projects the menu (with images/video) on the table.

More advanced applications are in the works. For example, Le Petit Chef projects an animation of the preparation of the course about to be served onto diner’s plates, and London restaurant Sketch has worked with VR firm HATO for a diner-engaging app.

More ambitious imaginings include combining the actual, physical world with an imaginary world. For example, eating a meal in the World of Warcraft, with some of the laws of physics seemingly broken, or eating a piece of the Moon (e.g. cheese) with bread and wine, while gazing at the Earth from its surface.

Origin of food and ingredients

Thanks in large part to the pandemic, QR codes, are suddenly a thing. Using the app built into your smartphone, you can get information on nutrition, product composition, and provenance. AR-enhanced QR codes allow you to “visit” source farms, learn cooking techniques, etc. Examples include:

  • ABP Food Group and Asda in the UK, which used Aircards to build an interactive, immersive AR experience, demonstrating cooking a perfect steak, as part of a larger consumer education campaign.
  • FarmVR combines geoAR, geolocation, 3D modelling, data visualisation, and virtual farm tours to create an interactive environment to inform consumers about where their food comes from. 
  • NexTech AR shows consumers how their seafood got from the ocean to their plates through an AR tour of the fishing boat. Patrón Tequila’s AR-enhanced app experience shows where Patrón comes from and how perfect tequila is made.
  • Queppelin AR Smart Glasses integrate visual observations with virtual information in a hands-free platform for farmers to facilitate decision making and to give consumers “eye-witness’ information about their food sources.
ABP and Asda’s augmented-reality steak cooking demonstration.

Training

Training opportunities abound across the food chain, from immersive e-learning experiences bringing advanced precision methods and techniques to geographically dispersed farms to training chefs in knife skills. Examples include:

  • Väderstad, an app that allows farmers to calibrate their machinery from their smartphone, while making training and equipment familiarisation easy and fast.
  • Cornell University veterinary school uses VR to teach anatomy, allowing students to experience new techniques before trying them on live animals. 
  • The University of Liverpool uses interactive fibreglass animal models with VR to teach veterinarian students what to expect when operating. 
  • An Australian VR system trains poultry workers, and another is being developed to enable remote post-mortem pig inspection. 

Efficiency and safety

AR tools can help select optimal tools and equipment for specific tasks. For example, Nedap CowControl uses Microsoft’s Hololense so that farmers can integrate digital information with real-world information. Using actions, hand gestures, and voice commands, farmers can interact with the technology naturally, efficiently, and successfully.

Yeppar utilizes AR, VR, and MR for field inspections, weather updates, and simulated agricultural training. XR can also improve farm safety (including dealing with hazardous materials stored on farm) and can alleviate the challenges of limited emergency response capabilities. The University of Nebraska’s AR system identifies on-farm hazards during emergencies and notifies first responders. Georgia Tech is developing AR systems that project instructional graphics onto chickens on a processing line, helping worker safety and improving efficiency and food safety. 

Consumer experience

Consumer-focused AR is largely about storytelling. For example, Augmania’s AR system combines interactive print, live demos, and AR experience to tell consumers their food story, and lets customers build their own AR experience (no coding skills needed). Boursin Sensorium 360 Virtual Reality Experience takes customers on a journey through the cheese production process.

Scanning their wine bottle lets 19Crimes Wine customers see and hear the convict’s story. Immersive & Gunn’s virtual reality headset transports customers to landscapes ‘inspired by’ their two main brews. Coca-Cola cans have had a variety of polar bear adventures to enjoy while drinking. In a cross-promotion, Nestlé cereal boxes had a QR code linked to the movie Rio, through which consumers could play an augmented reality game with Blu, the main character of the film.

While the hype of the ‘metaverse’ is entertaining, the agri-food sector is exploring the practical applications of AR. Agricultural AR is helping farmers better understand and manage land resources, enhance productivity, improve time management, streamline training, and improve safety. 

Looking up: The realities of vertical farming

The unravelling of the AeroFarms SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) set off a chain reaction that is sending vertical farming towards what North American food sustainability expert Henry Gordon-Smith termed “the trough of disillusionment”. Investment sentiment, which had driven SoftBank, Google and Bezos to invest, suddenly had a “volte face”. While this reaction to the realities of the costs and challenges of vertical farming largely reflected the unrealistic expectations for a still-emerging model, it also reflected un-answered sustainability and scaling questions. I have addressed these issues in a previous blog but they are newly (re) relevant.

Overlooked in the drama of the AeroFarms implosion is that vertical farming (VF) sits within the broader category of controlled environmental agriculture (CEA), which includes greenhouses. It has been interesting to see how technologies developed for VF are being applied to the traditional horizontal greenhouse in ways that allow for greater precision in the application of nutrients, water, heat, and disease control. This is a genuinely exciting development in countries without a naturally hot climate: How can what is being learned in the evolving VF sector be used to improve indoor production of fruit, vegetables, flowers in difficult climates while reducing their carbon footprint? What role can sensors, robots, smart energy systems and other AI tools play to generate automated systems requiring less plant protection, less irrigation and external energy? 

Already farms in The Netherlands have applied digital technologies to change the way glasshouses function. As the world’s second-largest exporter of food, The Netherlands has embraced mechanisation, robotics, drones, and driverless farm vehicles to produce food more economically and with a lower requirement for pesticides, chemicals, and antimicrobials. 

Growers of higher-value crops (such as cannabis) are also innovation leaders in digital technology. Novel applications such as producing forages in containers by Hydrogreen and Grov Technologies in the US, and vegetables and greens on site in restaurants with module farming systems by Alesca Life (a graduate of Dogpatch Lab’s Agri-Food Pearse Lyons Accelerator) show what can be done with innovative thinking. 

Farmony’s demonstration vertical farm in Dublin.

Even in Ireland, the use of 95 per cent less water, no soil, and lower crop inputs mean investments in rooftop farms or intensive systems within urban areas can be significant. Cities smaller than Dublin, Belfast and Cork have already seen CEA applications, while Emerald Greens (Ireland’s largest vertical farm) and Farmony (which has a demonstration vertical farm and sell the technology to other investors in Europe) are at the leading edge of the wave as it lands in Ireland. 

Food producers meet the SDGs

Humorists maintain that if everybody in a negotiation leave the room unhappy, then probably progress is being made, and that certainly seems to fit the outcome of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow! The scale of collective coordinated change being attempted through COP is unprecedented and, unfortunately, many agribusiness and agricultural commentators have not been onside.

A report commissioned by the Irish Farmers Journal suggests Ireland would need to reduce the national herd size by 1.3 million cattle to meets 2030 climate targets. Some seem to think that they can fight the tide, while others feel that they can’t win against a mountain of misinformation. One US academic, Frank Mitloehner,  has established a blog to try and get information out. 

It is increasingly clear that agriculture practices will be forced to change, especially with respect to cattle and other ruminants, starting this year. Estimating the actual footprint of meat and milk using the full carbon cycle can help address concerns about the impact of agriculture on climate change, but the bottom line is the same: Consumers are facing a series of unpleasant choices and agriculture is likely to come under more pressure than other industries because it is an easier decision to make.

Reduced use of fossil fuels for transportation, heating and air conditioning, having smaller families, limiting the construction of buildings (particularly the use of cement), and consuming local (and therefore limited) food may all have more substantial impacts on climate change than agriculture, but they are unpopular changes for consumers to make. Whether through laws or taxation, governments impose those choices on their citizens at their peril, as voters can and do vote both with their chequebook and at the ballot box. Behavioural change is difficult. 

During the height of the pandemic, consumers did not focus on food waste, but as the pandemic wanes, those concerns are rushing back. 

There are no magic bullets for food producers, but those who see technology as an ally will have an advantage. One surprising growth area for food producers is biofuels, particularly the California-driven new market for renewable diesel. Already 10 new crushing plants, at an estimated cost of $2 billion, have been announced in the US. One outcome is a flood of new soybean meal as a byproduct (see the excellent analysis by Walter Cronin).

A recent report suggested there are already 317 manures-based anaerobic digesters in the US, with 38 plans to upgrade biogas to renewable natural gas (RNG). The impact of methane and other biofuel generation on farms may mean that dairy producers could see more profit from fuel than from dairy milk. 

In addition to using renewable resources and not wasting by-products, addressing food waste is a way food producers can address sustainable development goals (SDGs). During the height of the pandemic, consumers did not focus on food waste, but as the pandemic wanes, those concerns are rushing back. 

There are several ways that food producers, distributors and retailers along the food chain can work to reduce food waste. Better packing and protection can keep food fresher and undamaged. Technology to optimize the food supply chains and shelf management will minimize over-ordering that leads to food being wasted. Many shelf-life guidelines are based on outdated practices and information, so reviewing, refining, and updating them could keep good food from being thrown away.

Building consumer acceptance of ‘ugly’ or misshapen produce and acculturating them to a wider visual range of how food should look can decrease the amount of food wasted at the retail level. Of course, even with all the initiatives and new ones to come, there will be some food waste – so that can be used to generate methane or feed insects grown to be used as food. All of these have the potential to significantly address food waste concerns, yielding a positive return for food producers and investors. 

Food and farm businesses will have to embrace the language and metrics provided by the SDG framework and openly publish their response to these metrics in the form of sustainability reports. The leading Irish food companies and agribusinesses (Kerry Group, Glanbia, Dunbia, Alltech, Devenish, Origin Enterprises, etc.) have set examples in recent reports. 

Digital farming: no longer just solutions seeking problems 

Agri-foodtech investment has had a “blow-out” year with an estimated $26.1 billion raised in 2020: a 16 per cent increase over the same period in 2019. Over the last five years, food tech and food supply chain technologies have received the greatest investment, followed by technology for commercial crops such as corn, wheat and soybean, fruit, and vegetables, but growth in livestock-tech startups is now getting some momentum. In 2020, for the first time, more than half of the money raised was for tech companies upstream in the food supply chain. 

What does digital technology mean for farming? 3-D printers, robots, iot, sensors, artificial intelligence, machine vision, blockchain, XR, AR, VR, data analytics, cloud computing are all transforming parts of the food chain in ways previously unimagined. 

Food producers have been excited for the digital dawn to come, but so far most of what they have seen is too expensive and not really fit for purpose: Technological solutions seeking real-world problems. However, with startups increasingly focused on existing real problems, that appears to be changing. 

Examples include crop farmers embracing variable rate application of fertiliser and precision technologies to reduce the application of crop production. Robots are now taking over some of the back-breaking work in the fields (particularly in the picking of fruits and flowers) and in food processing plants (especially in some of the most dangerous and repetitive positions). Sensors now enable targeted micro-irrigation in greenhouses as well as feeding for dairy cows. Technology to address food safety and food waste is progressing. 

Domestic startups, such as Cainthus, MagGrow, Microgen, Moocall, and ApisProtect have seen larger raises to support their startup efforts in the farming sector, and UCD’s AgTech centre has supported more than a dozen digital technologies. Flipdish’s graduation to become Ireland’s fifth unicorn shows what is possible in terms of food tech. As more innovators focus on practical applications, with more quantifiable results and more realistic price tags, users will be more willing to try new ways of doing things. 

Covid-19: Hot or not?

Will Covid be with us forever? Despite obsessive coverage in the media including in Ireland, and the recent decision to completely reopen the economy, the future is not much clearer now than it was a year ago. Are we still on a conveyor belt of viral mutations, with the planet lurching from one vaccination cycle to another?

Covid has changed a lot of things, and nobody knows which changes will stick – and which will usher in new ways of living. On the plus side, travellers will attest to the fact that planes and hotels have never been so clean! More crucially, the pharmaceutical industry has demonstrated a breathtaking capacity to develop, produce and launch new vaccines in record times.

Other changes are more ambiguous. Early disruptions in supply chains led to panicky calls to “bring everything home”, but more recently it is becoming clear that many supply chains are more robust than it seemed initially. Remote working has improved working conditions and opportunities for many, disimproved it for others, and opened serious discussions on where and when people can or should work. Aside from the implications for employment and careers, changes in urban planning, commercial real estate, and tax structures are all but certain.

Remote learning has been a struggle at every educational level, but the field is evolving rapidly, figuring out what works, what doesn’t, what tools are effective and what new tools might be more effective. The integration of technology into teaching has accelerated, and education for the next generation is likely to look quite different.

So, what next? Pandemic or endemic? The optimistic view is that the virus is burning out, with the Omicron variety infecting more people but with fewer health effects for the vaccinated. Omicron’s fast transmission rates may crowd out other variants, imparting immunity to those that get it long enough for the world’s population to reach herd immunity. In such a scenario, the beneficiaries will be those who vaccinate heavily, but also those with large young populations, where the virus results in few fatalities or hospitalisation. 

Of course, those are the same predictions as a year ago, when a series of analysts announced that the Covid virus was almost burnt out, but this time it feels more likely to be correct. If so, countries with older populations, countries that can’t or don’t vaccinate, or that use less-effective vaccines will be most at risk. These countries will continue to suffer economically and, depending on their role within global supply chains, their problems may result in random but significant effects on world trade. 

Either way, Covid’s effect on the world of food is clear: It accelerates the growing move towards automation, and away from heavy reliance on human labour. It fuels a greater commitment to biosecurity and blockchain-mediated traceability. And finally, it opens the possibility that the same vaccine development technology that has led to the Covid vaccines will be able to find solutions to some of the world’s thorniest animal diseases: African swine fever, avian influenza, and a myriad of cattle diseases. 

Irish agribusinesses should pay attention to the growth in interest in immuno-nutrition, intestinal health, and the microbiome. Despite the success of UCC’s APC Microbiome Centre and the work conducted on probiotics for human and infant health, the average Irish consumer’s knowledge of probiotics is still very limited. Prebiotics, functional fibres, competitive exclusion, and more are concepts that consumers are likely to embrace once they appreciate the complexity of the questions we are facing. 

When faced with viruses, novel pathogens or just the need to stay healthy, it seems the trillions of microbiotas within our bodies are literally under the microscope. Can food be the solution to our health, longevity and/or cognitive function? It seems so. 

The spoiler

With all the possibilities for Irish food producers, it is worth noting that there is a wild card spoiler in the room. 2022 is looking to be a very challenging year for the Chinese economy, which is likely to have a direct impact on the Irish food sector, particularly by affecting Chinese imports of food and feedstuffs. In my experience, the impact China has on world agricultural commodity prices is seriously underestimated. As an example directly relevant to Ireland, a statement from a top Chinese public health leader that drinking milk can help ward off Covid resulted in an increase in milk consumption in China that has taken up nearly the entire global increase in milk production. 

What, where, when, how much and at what price Chinese agribusiness purchasers buy agri-food products often seems carefully coordinated. This isn’t that surprising, given that China has a centralised economy and is the world’s largest importer. It is obvious that buying at this scale will have a global impact on the price of milk powder, soybean meal, dried distillers’ grains, pork, chicken, corn and more, so to benefit from this makes sense.

So far, China has weathered Covid better than any other economy, and online home purchasing seems to have driven Chinese tech exports further and faster. However, for China to export more it also requires other world economies to do well. China is vulnerable to recessions in pump-primed economies as well as supply chain disruption. The fallout from the implosion of Evergrande (the Chinese property giant) is likely to have ripple effects throughout the Chinese economy over the course of the coming year, as the government has signalled it is willing to let it fail, rather than reward extreme risk-taking. 

So, with China the major driver of agricultural and food prices, Irish participants in the agri-food sector will do well to actively monitor Chinese economic news. 

*****

So, what’s hot for Irish food and agribusiness in 2022? The metaverse, sustainability, digital agriculture, and possibly immunological opportunities growing out of Covid, will drive growth and offer real opportunities. What’s not? Cellular meats and vertical farming, at least not in themselves (although other alternative proteins and controlled environment agriculture might be).

And everybody in the food business should keep an eye on China, in case of spoilers.