This column is about the disjunction between the theory – what we expect to happen based on assumptions about causal structures – and reality – what actually happens – based on the interaction of institutions, interests, and ideas. Let’s use this space to think about what we thought might happen as sanctions were applied because of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, and what we’re seeing on the ground. I was reflecting on what we all expected to happen at the start of the Covid crisis, two years ago. We expected to see a tradeoff between economic growth and lives lost.…

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