Ronan Lyons is Professor in Economics at Trinity College Dublin, where his primary research areas are housing markets, urban economics, and economic history.
Ronan Lyons is an international expert on housing policy. Here, he argues that Sinn Féin’s policy document marks a continuation of current housing policy, rather than a radical shift.
Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford experienced no significant freeing up of rental stock at the height of lockdowns in 2020 and 2021. But the cities have seen a phenomenal resurgence in rental demand.
A constitutional right to housing could actually make things worse by giving the Government the opportunity to simply pay off those who make it to the Courts, rather than to make systemic fixes.
Net migration is volatile in Ireland and may well rise and fall over the coming years. But what seems far less likely to change is longer-run structural changes in society, all of which point to smaller households. This needs to be central in the housing discussion, not migration.
Dublin and its commuter counties have the lowest inflation in the housing market. But, given how tight second-hand supply is, and given how slowly fixed rate mortgages will unwind, upward pressure on prices will continue.
The Housing Commission disagreed over how to reform Ireland’s stringent system of rent controls. I was on the commission. These are the systems that we examined, and why different people took different stands.
The commission has outlined a need to radically redesign housing policy and give a clear pathway for building new homes. If not, we will be talking about a growing housing deficit for years to come.
Without any change in conditions, rents this year are likely to be up and not down. Why? Because the rental sector still awaits the kind of policy changes that will generate tens of thousands of new rental homes.
The shift from Munster to Leinster has not been confined to just the rugby pitch. It is something that can be seen in the economic structure of the country, too.
Simon Harris has promised that his Government will build 250,000 new homes over the next five years. However, many, many more are needed and the taoiseach must make his strategy and tactics very clear.
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